Friday, July 1, 2022

Daily Portfolio Update

BTCUSD @ 19.394,11 (BTCUSD Daily Chart)

Trend: bearish+ & downtrending; S/D-S/R: 17.600,75-22.961,17 (trend important dynamic support may be found at the 300 week SMA & 50 month SMA); JCS/SSO/BL: bullish reversal hammer 18-06 & bearish trend channel/neutral/-; holding BTC and GBTC (still in accumulation mode). "Bear market rally. I expect this bear market to last until the fourth quarter of 2022. Current total maximum drawdown on BTC was about 75%."

ETHUSD @ 1.052,80 (ETHUSD Daily Chart)

Trend: bearish+ & downtrending; S/D-S/R: 883,48-1.918,10 (trend important dynamic support may be found at the 300 week SMA & 50 month SMA); JCS/SSO/BL: bullish reversal hammer 18-06 & bearish trend channel/neutral/-; holding ETH and ETHE (fully invested by now). "Current total maximum drawdown on ETH was about 82%."

SQ @ 61,46 (SQ Daily Chart).

Trend: bearish+ & downtrending; S/D-S/R: 58,01-87,55 (trend important dynamic support may be found at the n.a.); JCS/SSO/BL: bullish reversal kicker 21-06 & bearish trend channel/neutral/-; holding SQ.

TSLA @ 673,42 (TSLA Daily Chart).

Trend: bearish+ & downtrending; S/D-S/R: 620,57-792,63 (trend important dynamic support may be found at the 200 week SMA & 50 month SMA); JCS/SSO/BL: bullish reversal engulfing 25-05 & bearish contracting triangle/neutral/-; holding TSLA (still in accumulation mode).

Trend is defined by the position of price vis-a-vis the Ichimoku Cloud (and it's color). Trendiness is defined by position of conversion line vis-a-vis the base line.

S/D-S/R abbreviates static and dynamic support/resistance levels.

JCS/SSO/BL means Japanese candlestick analysis, slow stochastic oscillator readings and price vis-a-vis the 8 day EMA. This combination of parameters is especially looking for reversal candles from overbought & oversold conditions followed by a base line cross.

EMA and SMA stand for exponential and simple moving average respectively.

I like stocks from innovative and vertically integrated (exponential) growth companies in the fields of 1) electric transportation and production of sustainable energy; 2) internet finance (incl. cryptocurrencies & defi); 3) genetics and 4) artificial intelligence - machine learning - deep learning - robotics. The innovation needs to be understandable, sympathetic, disruptive, scalable and have a moat. 

My portfolio consists momentarily out of ETHE, GBTC, SQ, TSLA and an array of cryptocurrencies. The expected holding period for SQ, TSLA and a core position in BTC is until 2030. For everything else related to cryptocurrencies the expected holding period is until 2021-2022. To existing positions I might add from time to time on a dca or pullback basis. 

These personal picks are, at the present time, not exactly flavor of the month. However in the long term I believe these investments and the underlying technology will survive this macro bear market.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.