Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Updates

There will be no updates until Wednesday the 1st of June.

Good luck with trading and investing.

Be careful out there.

Sunday, May 22, 2022

Trading (experimental)

First I determine the general direction of the market. 

In my view we are in a bull market when price is above 144 day SMA and in a bear market if price is below it.

In a bull market I either have no position or I am long ("buying the dips"). In a bear market I either have no position or I am short ("selling the rips").

Bull market. I go long, if I choose to, remember no position is an option, immediately after 1) price moves, has moved, above 8 day EMA and at the same time 2) 8 day SMA is above 20 day SMA. I exit long, if I choose to, when SSO is above 80 and/or VOL is below 20, but no later than when 8 day SMA moves below 20 day SMA (ultimate stoploss).

Bear market. I go short, if I choose to, remember no position is an option, immediately after 1) price moves, has moved, below 8 day EMA and at the same time 2) 8 day SMA is below 20 day SMA. I exit short, if I choose to, when SSO is below 20 and/or VOL is above 30, but no later than when 8 day SMA moves above 20 day SMA (ultimate stoploss). 

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

 

Bull-Bear Market

I define a bull-bear market as follows.

A bull market is when price is above 144 day SMA and a bear market is when price is below it.

I further look at macroeconomics and the resulting monetary stance of Central Banks. A valid bull market should be accompanied with accommodative credit policies while a regular bear market should show signs of restrictive credit policies.

For credit policies I look at the (rate of) change in monetary base (M2REAL) and at future interest rate expectations (FEDTARMD).

I therefore think we are currently in a bear market. Price is in many markets below the 144 day SMA. And Central Banks are tightening or planning to tighten the monetary base (QT) and are raising interest rates.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.