Tuesday, November 23, 2021

TSLA

I'm a long time bull on TSLA.

If things don't change fundamentally I will hold TSLA until at least 2030. In that period I expect TSLA to grow at least fivefold (to $ 5.000).

I recently sold a small portion of my TSLA holdings at around $ 1.100. Price development had gone parabolic. Never a good sign for the short term.

I hope to be able to buy back all these sold shares somewhere between $ 825 and $ 1.050. Partly did already.

For me the Tesla fundamentals are increased EV adoption; moats in several areas (manufacturing, battery design, drivetrain, software, artificial intelligence and process management); superior cars (range, performance, software, full self driving capabilities and safety); and additional business (solar energy, battery storage, insurance and (other) AI applications).

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog. 

Sunday, November 14, 2021

My Bitcoin Exit Strategy

One third of my bitcoin will remain in place.

For the other two thirds I will scale out as follows.

1) at equal parts at a $ 100.000 and at further increments of $ 50.000; and

2) fully (or the remainder) if NUPL goes above 0,75.

If none of this happens I guess I keep it all and wait for the next halving cycle.

Timing wise I expect a top anywhere between December 2021 and May 2022. Before we reach the top we will probably go parabolic. In the last month of near vertical ascent look out for moves of 10% to 25% in a day. If that happens you'll know the party is almost over.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.