Monday, May 24, 2021

Inflation versus Deflation (updated)

Where do I stand on this issue?

I think in the longer term deflation will win out.

Main reasons are:

- Technological Development (mechanization, information, automatization, computerization, digitalization, artificial intelligence and robotics will, by way of increased labour productivity, make prices of consumer and capital goods cheaper; this is by the way an exponential development);

- Demographics (aging of the world population will lead to diminishing demand for consumer goods and thus will cause lower prices; older people tend to live shorter, older people consume less than younger people and younger people will consume less because they have to take financially care of older people);

- Debt (increasing debt levels at the consumer, producer, banking and government level; when this debt needs to be repaid it will reduce at that timer demand for consumer and capital goods and thus will lead to lower prices).

Monetary easing (Central Banks printing money to buy (existing and new government (fiscal easing) debt/securities providing Commercial Banks with liquidity thereby increasing the supply of money and as a result driving interest rates lower) will be used to combat this deflation. As mentioned above monetary easing however will itself be deflationary because debt will have to be repaid causing a fall in demand for goods in the future (intertemporal choice). Each time you will need more debt to combat the same amount of deflation. It is a race Governments and Central Banks probably won't be able to win.

More on this subject at a later date.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Friday, May 21, 2021

SQ and TSLA

Holding on to my existing positions and further dca-ing in. 

Have not reached my maximum position yet.

As I've mentioned before these stocks I hold for the long term (2030).

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Wednesday, May 19, 2021

Cryptocurrencies Update

Given the current state of the market the following sayings might sound appropriate.

"No pain, no gain" (for those that want to stay in), or, "If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen" (for those that should get out).

Important. Investing in crypto is extremely risky. Therefore don't invest what you can't afford to lose. As a consequence I'm prepared for my investments in crypto to be reduced to zero.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Saturday, May 15, 2021

Altcoin Season

We are currently in Altcoin season.

Money has moved from BTC to ETH to now ADA en DOT.

Next places for the money to go to are (other) mid to small caps.

If the season is over money will flow back to BTC.

(BTC is first generation cryptocurrency, ETH is second generation cryptocurrency, ADA en DOT are third generation cryptocurrencies)

I own BTC, ETH, ADA, DOT and XLM.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Sunday, May 9, 2021

Bitcoin Target Fabrications

Bitcoin Target Fabrications (in $)

170,08 / 1.157,50 x 100 ~ 15% (2015 low / 2013 high)

3.122,34 / 19.783,21 x 100 ~ 15% (2018 low / 2017 high)

53.414,67 / 356.097,80 x 100 ~ 15% (2022 low / 2021 high)

3.122,34 / 1.157,50 ~ 2,7 (2018 low / 2013 high)

53.414,67 / 19.783,21 ~ 2,7 (2022 low / 2017 high)

170,08 * 3.122,34 * 53.414,67 (2015 low * 2018 low * 2022 low)

1.157,50 * 19.783,21 * 356.097,80 (2013 high * 2017 high * 2021 high)

356.097,80 ~ top next bull market (2021)

53.414,67 ~ bottom next bear market (2022) > Let's see if this level holds in April

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will probably be wrong. It is a human and therefore feeble attempt to create some order out of seemingly random market movements.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Monday, May 3, 2021

Weekly Portfolio Update

Portfolio update on a weekly basis.

BTCUSD @ 56.623,51 (BTCUSD Weekly Chart)
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 42.500-64.659,81 and 8 week EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bull flag? & bearish reversal doji 18-04/neutral/+; bullish trigger signs.

ETHUSD @ 2.951,98 (ETHUSD Weekly Chart)
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 1.400-? and 8 week EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bullish pennant/overbought/+; bullish trigger signs.

SQ @ 244,82 (SQ Weekly Chart).
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 191,36-283,19 and 8 week EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bullish symmetrical triangle & bearish reversal gravestone doji 18-04/neutral/+; bullish trigger signs.

TSLA @ 709,44 (TSLA Weekly Chart).
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 539,49-900,40 and 8 week EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bullish symmetrical triangle? & bearish reversal shooting star 18-04?/neutral/-; bullish trigger signs.

I like stocks from innovative and vertically integrated (exponential) growth companies in the fields of 1) production and consumption of sustainable energy; 2) internet finance (incl. cryptocurrencies & defi) - real estate - advertising; 3) genetics and 4) artificial intelligence - machine learning - deep learning-robotics. The innovation needs to be understandable, sympathetic, disruptive and defensible.

Trend is defined by the position of price vis-a-vis the 8 week EMA and 200 week SMA. Trendiness is defined by position of price vis-a-vis the 8 week EMA.

S/D-S/R abbreviates static and dynamic support/resistance levels.

JCS/SS/8EMA means Japanese candlestick analysis, slow stochastics readings and price vis-a-vis the 8 week EMA respectively. This combination of parameters is especially looking for reversal candles from overbought & oversold conditions followed by a 8 week EMA cross.

EMA and SMA stand for exponential and simple moving average respectively.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.