Saturday, January 16, 2021

Daily Dashboard (based on previous business day)

 Daily Time Frame Trading

AEX  651,73 (AEX Daily Chart)
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 602,64-656,66 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bearish harami /+/+; bullish trigger signs on 24-12-2020.
Trade actual: none.

SPX @ 3.768,25 (SPX Daily Chart)
Trend: neutral & downtrending; S/D-S/R: 3.662,71-3.826,69 and 8 day EMA support broken; JCS/SS/8EMA: bearish engulfing/-/-; no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: none.

COMPQ @ 12.998,50 (COMPQ Daily Chart)
Trend: neutral & downtrending; S/D-S/R: 12.525,22-13.208,09 and 8 day EMA support broken; JCS/SS/8EMA: bearish hanging man/-/-; no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: none.

XEU @ 120,77 (XEU Daily Chart)
Trend: neutral & downtrending; S/D-S/R: 120,59-123,45 and 8 day EMA resistance; JCS/SS/8EMA: bearish hanging man/-/-; no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: none.

BTCUSD @ 37.384,88 (BTCUSD Daily Chart)
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 30.308,40-41.964,96 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bullish engulfing/+/+; bullish trigger signs on 24-09-2020.
Trade actual: bought longs on 24-09-2020, stoploss at 8.955,68.

GOLD @ 1.829,90 (GOLD Daily Chart)
Trend: bearish & downtrending; S/D-S/R: 1.820-1.966,10 and 8 day EMA resistance; JCS/SS/8EMA: indecision candles/-/-; no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: none.

UST @ 136,39 (UST Daily Chart)
Trend: bearish &  uptrending; S/D-S/R: 134,15-137,44 and 8 day EMA resistance broken; JCS/SS/8EMA: n.a./+/+; no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: none.

Trend is defined by the position of price vis-a-vis the 8 day EMA and 200 day SMA. Trendiness is defined by position of price vis-a-vis the 8 day EMA.

S/D-S/R abbreviates static and dynamic support/resistance levels.

EMA and SMA stand for exponential and simple moving average respectively.

I only consider very clean Japanese Candlestick signals (JCS) only from an oversold or overbought Slow Stochastic (SS). 8EMA is the position of price versus the 8 day EMA.

Stoplosses are on a closing basis.

For actual trading I use capped futures (limited downside risk) and options.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Sunday, January 10, 2021

AEX Elliott Wave Musings

This presents the AEX Elliott Wave count as I currently imagine it.

Grand Super Cycle 3 up - Super Cycle 5 upCycle Wave 5 up - Primary Wave 5 up - Intermediate Wave 3 up (end of Cycle Wave 5 expected somewhere in 2027).

(Top Cycle Wave 1 in 1976, Bottom Cycle Wave 2 in 1982, Top Cycle Wave 3 in 1999, Bottom Cycle Wave 4 in 2009 and Top Cycle Wave 5 in 2027?).

For a graphical display look at the AEX Monthly Chart (AEX Monthly Chart I).

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is a human and therefore feeble ex poste attempt to create some order out of seemingly random market movements.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Stochtrader Stock Portfolio (weekly update)

My (core) personal portfolio consists of the following stocks.

GBTC @ 44,42 (GBTC Daily Chart).
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 26,45-48,65 and 8 day EMA support.
Position actual:  holding number of shares and still accumulating on a dca or pullback basis.
(anticipated holding period: until Q4 of 2021/2025; most recently bought some shares on 4/7-01-2021).

SQ @ 241,45 (SQ Daily Chart).
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 208,81-243,38 and 8 day EMA support.
Position actual: holding number of shares and still accumulating on a dca or pullback basis.
(anticipated holding period: until 2030; most recently bought some shares on 23-11-2020).

TSLA @ 880,02 (TSLA Daily Chart).
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 614,23-? and 8 day EMA support.
Position actual: holding number of shares and still accumulating on a dca or pullback basis.
(anticipated holding period: until 2030; most recently bought some shares on 21/22-12-2020).

I like stocks from innovative and vertically integrated growth companies in the fields of 1) production and consumption of sustainable energy; 2) internet finance-real estate-advertising; 3) genetics and 4) artificial intelligence-machine learning-deep learning-robotics. The innovation needs to be understandable, likable, disruptive and defensible. I particularly prefer stocks from aforementioned companies that create ecosystems (a host of related products) around there main product.

Next to my core portfolio I also have a flexible one I only use for trading purposes. It is based on Japanese Candlestick analysis.

Trend is defined by the position of price vis-a-vis the 8 day EMA and 200 day SMA. Trendiness is defined by position of price vis-a-vis the 8 day EMA.

S/D-S/R abbreviates static and dynamic support/resistance levels.

EMA and SMA stand for exponential and simple moving average respectively.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Monday, January 4, 2021

Buy the Dip (minder-grinder)

Buy the dip. At least in stock markets. But why?

This advice is certainly not sound all the time but has some merit to it.

Markets go up, 75% in time, way more often than they go down, 25% in time.

Governments and Central Banks have a stake in the markets (wealth effect & inflation). They will do everything in their power (MMT, i.e. monetary and fiscal policies) to either stabilize markets or propel them higher. And people in general are naturally more inclined to optimism (greed or fear of missing out) than to pessimism (fear of loss). And of course one of humanity's main endeavours is to increase wealth (market capital & dividends).

Also bears (swift, violent and erratic) are much more difficult to ride than bulls (slow, mild and grinding).

So it pays to be bullish more often than not. I normally stay bullish as long as the main indexes remain above the 8 day EMA. Below the 8 day EMA and above the 200 day SMA I'm neutral. I only turn bearish when we go below both the 8 day EMA and 200 day SMA, and I remain so, until the indexes move above the 8 day EMA again. This means I'm currently still bullish.

If markets consolidate, correct or enter bear market territory it is usually a good idea to start thinking about the levels at which you want to add to the stocks that are already part of your core portfolio. The one you hold for the long term.

For great investors the sun always shines. If markets go up they become more wealthy, if markets go down they are able to buy good stuff more cheaply. So see declines less as a threat and more as an opportunity.

Hopefully this helps to ease the pain and anxiety associated with loss of existing value. 

Furthermore it may make sense to invest a very, very, very small part of your total investment portfolio in gold or bitcoin (for me that is about 1%). See it as an insurance premium for when things really go wrong, and you want to be covered for the consequences of serious currency depreciation and/or financial system reorganisation (general debt rescheduling).

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.