Wednesday, April 14, 2021

Daily Portfolio Update

Portfolio update on a daily basis.

BTCUSD @ 64.607,60 (BTCUSD Daily Chart)
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 55.467,58-? and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: upside breakout from bullish symmetrical triangle and bullish inverse head and shoulders & bullish sandwich dojis 11/12-04/overbought/+; bullish trigger signs.

ETHUSD @ 2.386,05 (ETHUSD Daily Chart)
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 1.931,07-? and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bullish trend channel & jhook pattern & bullish sandwich dojis 11/12-04/overbought/+; bullish trigger signs.

SQ @ 273,23 (SQ Daily Chart).
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 202,10-283,19 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bullish trend channel & bullish reversal engulfing candle 30-03/overbought/+; bullish trigger signs.

TSLA @ 762,32 (TSLA Daily Chart).
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 591,01,20-900,40 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bullish symmetrical triangle? & bullish reversal engulfing candle 30-03/overbought/+; bullish trigger signs.

Trend is defined by the position of price vis-a-vis the 8 day EMA and 200 day SMA. Trendiness is defined by position of price vis-a-vis the 8 week EMA.

S/D-S/R abbreviates static and dynamic support/resistance levels.

JCS/SS/8EMA means Japanese candlestick analysis, slow stochastics readings and price vis-a-vis the 8 day EMA respectively. This combination of parameters is especially looking for reversal candles from overbought & oversold conditions followed by a 8 day EMA cross.

EMA and SMA stand for exponential and simple moving average respectively.

I like stocks from innovative and vertically integrated (exponential) growth companies in the fields of 1) production and consumption of sustainable energy; 2) internet finance (incl. cryptocurrencies & defi) - real estate - advertising; 3) genetics and 4) artificial intelligence - machine learning - deep learning-robotics. The innovation needs to be understandable, sympathetic, disruptive and defensible.

My portfolio consists momentarily out of GBTC, SQ, TSLA and a diverse array of cryptocurrencies. The expected holding period for SQ and TSLA is until 2030. For everything related to cryptocurrencies the expected holding period is Q3/Q4 2021. To existing positions I might add from time to time on a dca or pullback basis.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Monday, April 5, 2021

Weekly Portfolio Update

Portfolio update on a weekly basis.

BTCUSD @ 58.219,43 (BTCUSD Weekly Chart)
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 28.817,30-61.749,15 and 8 week EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bull flag?/overbought/+; bullish trigger signs.

ETHUSD @ 2.076,62 (ETHUSD Weekly Chart)
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 1.294,05-2,144,04 and 8 week EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: jhook pattern/overbought/+; bullish trigger signs.

SQ @ 229,51 (SQ Weekly Chart).
Trend: neutral & downtrending; S/D-S/R: 191,36-283,19 and 8 week EMA resistance; JCS/SS/8EMA: bullish engulfing reversal candle?/neutral/-; no bullish trigger signs.

TSLA @ 661,75 (TSLA Weekly Chart).
Trend: neutral & downtrending; S/D-S/R: 539,49-900,40 and 8 week EMA resistance; JCS/SS/8EMA: piercing pattern reversal candle?/neutral/-; no bullish trigger signs.

I like stocks from innovative and vertically integrated (exponential) growth companies in the fields of 1) production and consumption of sustainable energy; 2) internet finance (incl. cryptocurrencies & defi) - real estate - advertising; 3) genetics and 4) artificial intelligence - machine learning - deep learning-robotics. The innovation needs to be understandable, sympathetic, disruptive and defensible.

Trend is defined by the position of price vis-a-vis the 8 week EMA and 200 week SMA. Trendiness is defined by position of price vis-a-vis the 8 week EMA.

S/D-S/R abbreviates static and dynamic support/resistance levels.

JCS/SS/8EMA means Japanese candlestick analysis, slow stochastics readings and price vis-a-vis the 8 week EMA respectively. This combination of parameters is especially looking for reversal candles from overbought & oversold conditions followed by a 8 week EMA cross.

EMA and SMA stand for exponential and simple moving average respectively.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Monday, March 29, 2021

Bitcoin Target Fabrications

Bitcoin Target Fabrications

170,08 / 1.157,50 x 100 ~ 15% (2015 low / 2013 high)

3.122,34 / 19.783,21 x 100 ~ 15% (2018 low / 2017 high)

53.414,67 / 356.097,80 x 100 ~ 15% (2022 low / 2021 high)

3.122,34 / 1.157,50 ~ 2,7 (2018 low / 2013 high)

53.414,67 / 19.783,21 ~ 2,7 (2022 low / 2017 high)

170,08 * 3.122,34 * 53.414,67 (2015 low * 2018 low * 2022 low)

1.157,50 * 19.783,21 * 356.097,80 (2013 high * 2017 high * 2021 high)

356.097,80 ~ top next bull market (2021)

53.414,67 ~ bottom next bear market (2022)

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is a human and therefore feeble attempt to create some order out of seemingly random market movements.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Thursday, March 25, 2021

Buy the Dip (minder-grinder)

Buy the dip. At least in stock markets. But why?

This advice is certainly not sound all the time but has some merit to it.

Markets go up, 75% in time, way more often than they go down, 25% in time.

Governments and Central Banks have a stake in the markets (wealth effect & inflation). They will do everything in their power (MMT, i.e. monetary and fiscal policies) to either stabilize markets or propel them higher. And people in general are naturally more inclined to optimism (greed or fear of missing out) than to pessimism (fear of loss). And of course one of humanity's main endeavours is to increase wealth (market capital & dividends).

Also bears (swift, violent and erratic) are much more difficult to ride than bulls (slow, mild and grinding).

So it pays to be bullish more often than not. I normally stay bullish as long as the main indexes remain above the 8 day EMA. Below the 8 day EMA and above the 200 day SMA I'm neutral. I only turn bearish when we go below both the 8 day EMA and 200 day SMA, and I remain so, until the indexes move above the 8 day EMA again. This means I'm currently neutral in the main stock indexes. Due to higher interest rates markets are getting repriced.

If markets consolidate, correct or enter bear market territory it is usually a good idea to start thinking about the levels at which you want to add to the stocks that are already part of your core portfolio. The ones you hold for the long term.

For great investors the sun always shines. If markets go up they become more wealthy, if markets go down they are able to buy good stuff more cheaply. So see declines less as a threat and more as an opportunity. Remember it is about time in the market not timing the market.

Hopefully this helps to ease the pain and anxiety associated with loss of existing value. 

Furthermore it may make sense to invest a very, very, very small part of your total investment portfolio in gold or bitcoin (for me that is about 1%). See it as a deeply, fundamentally uncorrelated hedge against to the existing traditional financial infrastructure.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Friday, February 26, 2021

Blood in the Streets

"Buy when there is blood in the streets, even when it's your own" (Baron Rothschild).

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful" (Warren Buffett).

These quotes seem to be applicable now. So is this a good time to be buying stocks? Maybe not immediately! But a timely consideration of the below mentioned might benefit you.

If markets consolidate, correct or enter bear market territory it is usually a good idea to start thinking about the levels at which you want to start dollar cost average (dca) into the stocks that are part of your core portfolio. The one you hold for the long term.

For great investors the sun always shines. If markets go up they become more wealthy, if markets go down they are able to buy good stuff more cheaply. So see declines less as a threat and more as an opportunity. Remember it is about time in the market not timing the market.

Hopefully this helps to ease the pain and anxiety associated with loss of existing value. 

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.