Friday, September 24, 2021

Daily Portfolio Update

Portfolio update on a daily basis.

BTCUSD @ 45.006,28 (BTCUSD Daily Chart)

Trend: neutral & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 39.767,17-48.808 and 8 day EMA resistance broken (trend important dynamic support may be found at the 50 week SMA & 8 month EMA); JCS/SS/8EMA: bullish triple double bottom May-June-July & potential bullish reversal engulfing 22-09 & bearish trend channel/neutral/+; holding BTC and GBTC (might start buying again when SS < 20).

ETHUSD @ 3.107,49 (ETHUSD Daily Chart)

Trend: neutral & downtrending; S/D-S/R: 2.677,64-3.673,80 and 8 day EMA resistance (trend important dynamic support may be found at the 8 month EMA); JCS/SS/8EMA: bullish triple bottom May-June-July & potential bullish reversal engulfing 22-09 & bearish trend channel/neutral/-; holding ETH and ETHE (might start buying again when SS < 20).

SQ @ 266,72 (SQ Daily Chart).

Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 237,91-276,14 and 8 day EMA support (trend important dynamic support may be found at the 200 day SMA & 50 week SMA); JCS/SS/8EMA: bullish double bottom March-May & potential bullish reversal hammer 13-09 & bearish trend channel/neutral/+; holding SQ.

TSLA @ 753,64 (TSLA Daily Chart).

Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 648,84-780,79 and 8 day EMA support (trend important dynamic support may be found at 50/200 day SMA & 50 week SMA); JCS/SS/8EMA: bullish double bottom March-May & bullish island reversal 19-05 & bullish trend channel/neutral/+; holding TSLA.

Trend is defined by the position of price vis-a-vis the 8 day EMA and 200 day SMA. Trendiness is defined by position of price vis-a-vis the 8 week EMA.

S/D-S/R abbreviates static and dynamic support/resistance levels.

JCS/SS/8EMA means Japanese candlestick analysis, slow stochastics readings and price vis-a-vis the 8 day EMA respectively. This combination of parameters is especially looking for reversal candles from overbought & oversold conditions followed by a 8 day EMA cross.

EMA and SMA stand for exponential and simple moving average respectively.

I like stocks from innovative and vertically integrated (exponential) growth companies in the fields of 1) production and consumption of sustainable energy; 2) internet finance (incl. cryptocurrencies & defi) - real estate - advertising; 3) genetics and 4) artificial intelligence - machine learning - deep learning-robotics. The innovation needs to be understandable, sympathetic, disruptive, scalable and have a moat.

My portfolio consists momentarily out of ETHE, GBTC, SQ, TSLA and an array of cryptocurrencies. The expected holding period for SQ, TSLA and a core position in BTC is until 2030. For everything else related to cryptocurrencies the expected holding period is until 2022-2023. To existing positions I might add from time to time on a dca or pullback basis.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Wednesday, September 22, 2021

Evergrande (originally published 20-09-2021)

The Evergrande situation might provide me with a dip buying opportunity.

Will be looking to gradually add to my investments in ETHE, GBTC and TSLA. 

(Did buy some GBTC and TSLA on 20/21-09-2021)

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Sunday, August 8, 2021

Cryptocurrencies

My personal targets this market cycle for the cryptocurrencies I own are as follows.

ADA ($ 10), BTC ($ 350.000), DOT ($ 300), ETH ($ 25.000) and XLM ($ 4).

Crazy, right? Would be great if some of these targets would hit in 2021. Or if you believe in lengthening cycles and diminishing returns somewhere in period December 2022-February 2023.

If not, no problem, I'm not in a hurry. I'm hodling. If need be all the way down to zero. There is always the next cycle.

Let's see where we go in the near time. Whatever happens it will be a hell of a ride.

Important. Investing in crypto is extremely risky. Therefore don't invest what you can't afford to lose. As a consequence I'm prepared for my investments in crypto to be reduced to zero.

Don't hang your hat on this kind of speculation. It will probably be wrong. 

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Tuesday, July 20, 2021

Updates

There will be no updates until Monday the 26th of July.

Good luck with trading and investing.

Be careful out there.

Monday, May 24, 2021

Inflation versus Deflation (updated)

Where do I stand on this issue?

I think in the longer term deflation will win out.

Main reasons are:

- Technological Development (mechanization, information, automatization, computerization, digitalization, artificial intelligence and robotics will, by way of increased labour productivity, make prices of consumer and capital goods cheaper; this is by the way an exponential development);

- Demographics (aging of the world population will lead to diminishing demand for consumer goods and thus will cause lower prices; older people tend to live shorter, older people consume less than younger people and younger people will consume less because they have to take financially care of older people);

- Debt (increasing debt levels at the consumer, producer, banking and government level; when this debt needs to be repaid it will reduce at that timer demand for consumer and capital goods and thus will lead to lower prices).

Monetary easing (Central Banks printing money to buy (existing and new government (fiscal easing) debt/securities providing Commercial Banks with liquidity thereby increasing the supply of money and as a result driving interest rates lower) will be used to combat this deflation. As mentioned above monetary easing however will itself be deflationary because debt will have to be repaid causing a fall in demand for goods in the future (intertemporal choice). Each time you will need more debt to combat the same amount of deflation. It is a race Governments and Central Banks probably won't be able to win in the long term.

More on this subject at a later date.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Friday, May 21, 2021

SQ and TSLA

Holding on to my existing positions and further dca-ing in. 

Have not reached my maximum position yet.

As I've mentioned before these stocks I hold for the long term (2030).

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Wednesday, May 19, 2021

Cryptocurrencies Update

Given the current state of the market the following sayings might sound appropriate.

"No pain, no gain" (for those that want to stay in), or, "If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen" (for those that should get out).

Important. Investing in crypto is extremely risky. Therefore don't invest what you can't afford to lose. As a consequence I'm prepared for my investments in crypto to be reduced to zero.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Saturday, May 15, 2021

Altcoin Season

We are currently in Altcoin season.

Money has moved from BTC to ETH to now ADA en DOT.

Next places for the money to go to are (other) mid to small caps.

If the season is over money will flow back to BTC.

(BTC is first generation cryptocurrency, ETH is second generation cryptocurrency, ADA en DOT are third generation cryptocurrencies)

I own BTC, ETH, ADA, DOT and XLM.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Sunday, May 9, 2021

Bitcoin Target Fabrications

Bitcoin Target Fabrications (in $)

170,08 / 1.157,50 x 100 ~ 15% (2015 low / 2013 high)

3.122,34 / 19.783,21 x 100 ~ 15% (2018 low / 2017 high)

53.414,67 / 356.097,80 x 100 ~ 15% (2022 low / 2021 high)

3.122,34 / 1.157,50 ~ 2,7 (2018 low / 2013 high)

53.414,67 / 19.783,21 ~ 2,7 (2022 low / 2017 high)

170,08 * 3.122,34 * 53.414,67 (2015 low * 2018 low * 2022 low)

1.157,50 * 19.783,21 * 356.097,80 (2013 high * 2017 high * 2021 high)

356.097,80 ~ top next bull market (2021)

53.414,67 ~ bottom next bear market (2022) > Let's see if this level holds in April

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will probably be wrong. It is a human and therefore feeble attempt to create some order out of seemingly random market movements.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Monday, May 3, 2021

Weekly Portfolio Update

Portfolio update on a weekly basis.

BTCUSD @ 56.623,51 (BTCUSD Weekly Chart)
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 42.500-64.659,81 and 8 week EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bull flag? & bearish reversal doji 18-04/neutral/+; bullish trigger signs.

ETHUSD @ 2.951,98 (ETHUSD Weekly Chart)
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 1.400-? and 8 week EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bullish pennant/overbought/+; bullish trigger signs.

SQ @ 244,82 (SQ Weekly Chart).
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 191,36-283,19 and 8 week EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bullish symmetrical triangle & bearish reversal gravestone doji 18-04/neutral/+; bullish trigger signs.

TSLA @ 709,44 (TSLA Weekly Chart).
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 539,49-900,40 and 8 week EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bullish symmetrical triangle? & bearish reversal shooting star 18-04?/neutral/-; bullish trigger signs.

I like stocks from innovative and vertically integrated (exponential) growth companies in the fields of 1) production and consumption of sustainable energy; 2) internet finance (incl. cryptocurrencies & defi) - real estate - advertising; 3) genetics and 4) artificial intelligence - machine learning - deep learning-robotics. The innovation needs to be understandable, sympathetic, disruptive and defensible.

Trend is defined by the position of price vis-a-vis the 8 week EMA and 200 week SMA. Trendiness is defined by position of price vis-a-vis the 8 week EMA.

S/D-S/R abbreviates static and dynamic support/resistance levels.

JCS/SS/8EMA means Japanese candlestick analysis, slow stochastics readings and price vis-a-vis the 8 week EMA respectively. This combination of parameters is especially looking for reversal candles from overbought & oversold conditions followed by a 8 week EMA cross.

EMA and SMA stand for exponential and simple moving average respectively.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Friday, April 23, 2021

Crypto

Cryptocurrencies are having a hard time. Get used to 30% to 50% corrections in these markets. They are healthy. Par for the course. Nothing abnormal so far. Still assuming this bull market has further to go. No guarantees though.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Thursday, March 25, 2021

Buy the Dip (minder-grinder)

Buy the dip. At least in stock markets. But why?

This advice is certainly not sound all the time but has some merit to it.

Markets go up, 75% in time, way more often than they go down, 25% in time.

Governments and Central Banks have a stake in the markets (wealth effect & inflation). They will do everything in their power (MMT, i.e. monetary and fiscal policies) to either stabilize markets or propel them higher. And people in general are naturally more inclined to optimism (greed or fear of missing out) than to pessimism (fear of loss). And of course one of humanity's main endeavours is to increase wealth (market capital & dividends).

Also bears (swift, violent and erratic) are much more difficult to ride than bulls (slow, mild and grinding).

So it pays to be bullish more often than not. I normally stay bullish as long as the main indexes remain above the 8 day EMA. Below the 8 day EMA and above the 200 day SMA I'm neutral. I only turn bearish when we go below both the 8 day EMA and 200 day SMA, and I remain so, until the indexes move above the 8 day EMA again. This means I'm currently neutral in the main stock indexes. Due to higher interest rates markets are getting repriced.

If markets consolidate, correct or enter bear market territory it is usually a good idea to start thinking about the levels at which you want to add to the stocks that are already part of your core portfolio. The ones you hold for the long term.

For great investors the sun always shines. If markets go up they become more wealthy, if markets go down they are able to buy good stuff more cheaply. So see declines less as a threat and more as an opportunity. Remember it is about time in the market not timing the market.

Hopefully this helps to ease the pain and anxiety associated with loss of existing value. 

Furthermore it may make sense to invest a very, very, very small part of your total investment portfolio in gold or bitcoin (for me that is about 1%). See it as a deeply, fundamentally uncorrelated hedge against to the existing traditional financial infrastructure.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Friday, February 26, 2021

Blood in the Streets

"Buy when there is blood in the streets, even when it's your own" (Baron Rothschild).

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful" (Warren Buffett).

These quotes seem to be applicable now. So is this a good time to be buying stocks? Maybe not immediately! But a timely consideration of the below mentioned might benefit you.

If markets consolidate, correct or enter bear market territory it is usually a good idea to start thinking about the levels at which you want to start dollar cost average (dca) into the stocks that are part of your core portfolio. The one you hold for the long term.

For great investors the sun always shines. If markets go up they become more wealthy, if markets go down they are able to buy good stuff more cheaply. So see declines less as a threat and more as an opportunity. Remember it is about time in the market not timing the market.

Hopefully this helps to ease the pain and anxiety associated with loss of existing value. 

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.