Sunday, December 5, 2021

Cryptocurrencies

Crypto was taken to the woodshed this weekend. Reason. In general, markets are in a risk-off mode currently. Add to that low weekend liquidity and an overleveraged (high open interest & positive funding rates) market in crypto, and you have a recipe for volatility (liquidation cascade). Nothing I have seen so far makes me change my long-term view on the crypto space yet.

(When in doubt, zoom out. Go from the hourly to the daily to the weekly to the monthly chart and get some perspective).

My personal targets this market cycle for the cryptocurrencies I own therefore stay as follows.

ADA ($ 10), BTC ($ 350.000), DOT ($ 300), ETH ($ 25.000) and XLM ($ 4).

Crazy, right? Would be great if some of these targets would hit in 2021. Or if you believe in lengthening cycles and diminishing returns somewhere in the period December 2021 - May 2022.

If not, no problem, I'm not in a hurry. I'm hodling. If need be all the way down to zero. There is always the next cycle.

Let's see where we go in the near time. Whatever happens it will be a hell of a ride.

Important. Investing in crypto is extremely risky. Therefore don't invest what you can't afford to lose. As a consequence I'm prepared for my investments in crypto to be reduced to zero.

Don't hang your hat on this kind of speculation. It will probably be wrong. 

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

TSLA

I'm a long time bull on TSLA.

If things don't change fundamentally I will hold TSLA until at least 2030. In that period I expect TSLA to grow at least fivefold (to $ 5.000).

I recently sold a small portion of my TSLA holdings at around $ 1.100. Price development had gone parabolic. Never a good sign for the short term.

I hope to be able to buy back all these sold shares somewhere between $ 825 and $ 1.050. Partly did already.

For me the Tesla fundamentals are increased EV adoption; moats in several areas (manufacturing, battery design, drivetrain, software, artificial intelligence and process management); superior cars (range, performance, software, full self driving capabilities and safety); and additional business (solar energy, battery storage, insurance and (other) AI applications).

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog. 

Sunday, November 14, 2021

My Bitcoin Exit Strategy

One third of my bitcoin will remain in place.

For the other two thirds I will scale out as follows.

1) at equal parts at a $ 100.000 and at further increments of $ 50.000; and

2) fully (or the remainder) if NUPL goes above 0,75.

If none of this happens I guess I keep it all and wait for the next halving cycle.

Timing wise I expect a top anywhere between December 2021 and May 2022. Before we reach the top we will probably go parabolic. In the last month of near vertical ascent look out for moves of 10% to 25% in a day. If that happens you'll know the party is almost over.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Wednesday, September 29, 2021

Updates

There will be no updates until Tuesday the 5th of October.

Good luck with trading and investing.

Be careful out there.

Thursday, March 25, 2021

Buy the Dip (minder-grinder)

Buy the dip. At least in stock markets. But why?

This advice is certainly not sound all the time but has some merit to it.

Markets go up, 75% in time, way more often than they go down, 25% in time.

Governments and Central Banks have a stake in the markets (wealth effect & inflation). They will do everything in their power (MMT, i.e. monetary and fiscal policies) to either stabilize markets or propel them higher. And people in general are naturally more inclined to optimism (greed or fear of missing out) than to pessimism (fear of loss). And of course one of humanity's main endeavours is to increase wealth (market capital & dividends).

Also bears (swift, violent and erratic) are much more difficult to ride than bulls (slow, mild and grinding).

So it pays to be bullish more often than not. I normally stay bullish as long as the main indexes remain above the 8 day EMA. Below the 8 day EMA and above the 200 day SMA I'm neutral. I only turn bearish when we go below both the 8 day EMA and 200 day SMA, and I remain so, until the indexes move above the 8 day EMA again. This means I'm currently neutral in the main stock indexes. Due to higher interest rates markets are getting repriced.

If markets consolidate, correct or enter bear market territory it is usually a good idea to start thinking about the levels at which you want to add to the stocks that are already part of your core portfolio. The ones you hold for the long term.

For great investors the sun always shines. If markets go up they become more wealthy, if markets go down they are able to buy good stuff more cheaply. So see declines less as a threat and more as an opportunity. Remember it is about time in the market not timing the market.

Hopefully this helps to ease the pain and anxiety associated with loss of existing value. 

Furthermore it may make sense to invest a very, very, very small part of your total investment portfolio in gold or bitcoin (for me that is about 1%). See it as a deeply, fundamentally uncorrelated hedge against to the existing traditional financial infrastructure.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.