Sunday, November 22, 2020

AEX Elliott Wave Musings

This presents the AEX Elliott Wave count as I currently imagine it.

Grand Super Cycle 3 up - Super Cycle 5 upCycle Wave 5 up - Primary Wave 5 up - Intermediate Wave 3 up - Minor Wave 1 up (?) (end of Cycle Wave 5 expected somewhere in 2027).

(Top Cycle Wave 1 in 1976, Bottom Cycle Wave 2 in 1982, Top Cycle Wave 3 in 1999, Bottom Cycle Wave 4 in 2009 and Top Cycle Wave 5 in 2027?).

For a graphical display look at the AEX Monthly Chart (AEX Monthly Chart I).

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is a human and therefore feeble ex poste attempt to create some order out of seemingly random market movements.

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Stochtrader Stock Portfolio (weekly update)

My (core) personal portfolio consists of the following stocks.

GBTC @ 21,24 (GBTC Daily Chart).
Trend: bullishuptrending; S/D-S/R: 10-25,20 and 8 day EMA support.
Position actual: happy with my current exposure, will only accumulate upon serious retracements.
(most recently bought some shares on 09/11/13-11-2020).

ILMN @ 300,80 (ILMN Daily Chart).
Trend: bearish & downtrending; S/D-S/R: 260,42-356 and 8 day EMA resistance.
Position actual: holding number of shares and stopped accumulating on a dca-basis.

LMND @ 63,15 (LMND Daily Chart).
Trend: undefined & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 44,11-72,55 and 8 day EMA support.
Position actual: holding number of shares and stopped accumulating on a dca-basis.

SQ @ 195,97 (SQ Daily Chart).
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 151,10-201,33 and 8 day EMA support.
Position actual: holding number of shares and stopped accumulating on a dca-basis.
(most recently bought some shares on 15-10-2020).

TSLA @ 489,61 (TSLA Daily Chart).
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 396,03-502,50 and 8 day EMA support.
Position actual: holding number of shares and still accumulating on a dca-basis.
(most recently bought some shares on 30-10-2020).

I like stocks from innovative and vertically integrated growth companies in the fields of production and consumption of sustainable energy, internet finance-real estate-advertising, genetics and artificial intelligence-machine learning-deep learning. The innovation needs to be understandable, likable, disruptive and defensible. I particularly prefer stocks from aforementioned companies that create ecosystems (a host of related products) around there main product.

Next to my core portfolio I also have a flexible one I only use for trading purposes. It is based on Japanese Candlestick analysis.

Trend is defined by the position of price vis-a-vis the 8 day EMA and 200 day SMA. Trendiness is defined by position of price vis-a-vis the 8 day EMA.

S/D-S/R abbreviates static and dynamic support/resistance levels.

EMA and SMA stand for exponential and simple moving average respectively.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Saturday, November 21, 2020

Daily Dashboard (based on previous business day)

 Daily Time Frame Trading

AEX  601,62 (AEX Daily Chart)
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 527,86-632,12 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bearish spinning top/+/+; no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: none.

SPX @ 3.557,54 (SPX Daily Chart)
Trend: neutral & downtrending; S/D-S/R: 3.233,94-3.645,99 and 8 day EMA support broken; JCS/SS/8EMA: bearish shooting star/-/-; no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: none.

COMPQ @ 11.854,97 (COMPQ Daily Chart)
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 10.822,57-12.074,06 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bearish engulfing/-/+; no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: none.

XEU @ 118,60 (XEU Daily Chart)
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 116,13-119,20 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bearish harami/-/+; no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: sold longs on 20-11-2020 at profit, reason bearish harami.

BTCUSD @ 18.704,86 (BTCUSD Daily Chart)
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 8.955,68-19.870,62 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bullish sandwich dojis/+/+; bullish trigger signs on 24-09-2020.
Trade actual: bought longs on 24-09-2020, stoploss at 8.955,68.

GOLD @ 1.872,40 (GOLD Daily Chart)
Trend: neutral & downtrending; S/D-S/R: 1.848-1.966,10 and 8 day EMA resistance; JCS/SS/8EMA: huge bearish engulfing/-/-; no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: none.

UST @ 138,30 (UST Daily Chart)
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 137,30-139,17 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: ?/+/+; no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: none.

Trend is defined by the position of price vis-a-vis the 8 day EMA and 200 day SMA. Trendiness is defined by position of price vis-a-vis the 8 day EMA.

S/D-S/R abbreviates static and dynamic support/resistance levels.

EMA and SMA stand for exponential and simple moving average respectively.

I only consider very clean Japanese Candlestick signals (JCS) in the direction of the trend preferably from an oversold or overbought Slow Stochastic (SS). 8EMA is the position of price versus the 8 day EMA.

Stoplosses are on a closing basis.

For actual trading I use capped futures (limited downside risk) and options.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.