Saturday, September 26, 2020

Daily Dashboard (based on previous business day)

 Daily Time Frame Trading

AEX  540,91 (AEX Daily Chart)
Trend: downtrend; S/D-S/R: 529,78-573,23 and 8 day EMA resistance; JCS/SS/8EMA: no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: none.

SPX @ 3.298,46 (SPX Daily Chart)
Trend: downtrend; S/D-S/R: 3.200,05-3.428,92 and 8 day EMA resistance; JCS/SS/8EMA: morning star/-/-, no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: none.

COMPQ @ 10.913,56 (COMPQ Daily Chart)
Trend: downtrend; S/D-S/R: 10.217,31-11.245,42 and 8 day EMA resistance broken; JCS/SS/8EMA: morning star/+/+, bullish trigger signs on 25-09-2020.
Trade actual: bought longs on 25-09-2020, stoploss at 10.519,49.

XEU @ 116,33 (XEU Daily Chart)
Trend: downtrend; S/D-S/R: 114,25-119,17 and 8 day EMA resistance; JCS/SS/8EMA: no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: none.

BTCUSD @ 10.711,08 (BTCUSD Daily Chart)
Trend: consolidation in uptrend; S/D-S/R: 8.946,05-12.106,89 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bullish trigger signs on 15-09-2020.
Trade actual: bought longs on 15-09-2020, stoploss at 8.946,05.

GOLD @ 1.866,30 (GOLD Daily Chart)
Trend: downtrend; S/D-S/R: 1.983,80-1.829,80 and 8 day EMA resistance; JCS/SS/8EMA: no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: sold longs on 25-08-2020 at loss, stoplossed at 1.874,20.

UST @ 139,57 (UST Daily Chart)
Trend: consolidation in uptrend; S/D-S/R: 138,69-140,36 and 8 day EMA meandering; JCS/SS/8EMA: no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: none.

Trend is defined by the position of highs and lows and/or the existence of a clear trend channel. Consolidation (accumulation/distribution) usually means a breach of dynamic but not of static support/resistance. Corrections usually imply a breach of both.

S/D-S/R abbreviates static and dynamic support/resistance levels. EMA stands for exponential moving average.

I only consider very clean Japanese Candlestick signals (JCS) in the direction of the trend preferably from an oversold or overbought Slow Stochastic (SS). 8EMA is the position of price versus the 8 day EMA.

Stoplosses are on a closing basis.

For actual trading I use capped futures (limited downside risk) and options.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Monday, September 21, 2020

Blood in the Streets

"Buy when there is blood in the streets, even when it's your own" (Baron Rothschild).

"Be fearful when others are gready, and greedy when others are fearful" (Warren Buffett).

These quotes seem to be applicable now. So is this a good time to be buying stocks?

I have no idea. Probably not. But if markets consolidate, correct or enter bear market territory it is usually not a bad idea to start thinking about the levels at which you want to add to stocks held in your core portfolio. The one you hold for the longterm. So see it less as a threat and more as an opportunity. Hopefully this helps to ease the pain and anxiety associated with loss of existing value.

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Sunday, September 20, 2020

Stochtrader Stock Portfolio (weekly update)

My (core) personal portfolio consists of the following stocks.

ILMN @ 295,50 (ILMN Daily Chart).
Trend: downtrend; S/D-S/R: 251,14-377,23 and 8 day EMA resistance.
Position actual: holding number of shares and still accumulating on a dca-basis.

LMND @ 55,24 (ILMN Daily Chart).
Trend: downtrend; S/D-S/R: 44,11-66,36 and 8 day EMA resistance broken.
Position actual: holding number of shares and still accumulating on a dca-basis.

SQ @ 145,01 (SQ Daily Chart).
Trend: consolidation in uptrend; S/D-S/R: 135,03-170,46 and 8 day EMA support broken.
Position actual: holding number of shares and still accumulating on a dca-basis.

TSLA @ 442,15 (TSLA Daily Chart).
Trend: consolidation in uptrend; S/D-S/R: 337,80-502,49 and 8 day EMA support.
Position actual: holding number of shares and still accumulating on a dca-basis.

I like stocks from out-innovating and vertically integrated growth companies in the fields of production and consumption of sustainable energy, internet finance-real estate-advertising, genetics, artificial intelligence-machine learning-deep learning. The innovation needs to be understandable, likable, disruptive and defensible. I particularly prefer stocks from aforementioned companies that create ecosystems (a host of related products) around there main product.

Next to my core portfolio I also have a flexible one I only use for trading purposes. It is based on Japanese Candlestick analysis.

Trend is defined by the position of highs and lows and/or the existence of a clear trend channel. Consolidation (accumulation/distribution) usually means a breach of dynamic but not of static support/resistance. Corrections usually imply a breach of both.

S/D-S/R abbreviates static and dynamic support/resistance levels.

EMA stands for exponential moving average.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

AEX Elliott Wave Musings

This presents the AEX Elliott Wave count as I currently imagine it.

Grand Super Cycle 3 up - Super Cycle 5 upCycle Wave 5 up - Primary Wave 5 up - Intermediate Wave 2 down - Minor Wave C down (end of Cycle Wave 5 expected somewhere in 2027).

(Top Cycle Wave 1 in 1976, Bottom Cycle Wave 2 in 1982, Top Cycle Wave 3 in 1999, Bottom Cycle Wave 4 in 2009 and Top Cycle Wave 5 in 2027?).

For a graphical display look at the AEX Monthly Charts (AEX Monthly Chart I and AEX Monthly Chart II).

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is a human and therefore feeble ex poste attempt to create some order out of seemingly random market movements.

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Friday, September 18, 2020

Buy the Dip (reminder)

Buy the dip. At least in stock markets. But why?

This advice is certainly not sound all the time but has some merit to it.

Markets go up, 75% in time, way more often than they go down, 25% in time. Governments and Central Banks have a stake in the markets (wealth effect & inflation). They will do everything in their power (monetary and fiscal policies) to either stabilize markets or propel them higher. And people in general are more naturally inclined to optimism (greed or fear of missing out) than to pessimism (fear of loss). And of course one of humanity's main endeavours is to increase wealth (market capital & dividends).

Also bears (swift, violent and erratic) are much more difficult to ride than bulls (slow, mild and grinding).

So it pays to be bullish more often than not. I normally stay bullish as long as the main indexes remain above the 8 day EMA. I only turn bearish when these indexes both move below the 8 day EMA and 200 day SMA and I remain so until the indexes move above the 8 day EMA again.

If markets consolidate, correct or enter bear market territory it is usually a good idea to start thinking about the levels at which you want to add to stocks held in your core portfolio. The ones you hold for the longterm. So see it less as a threat and more as an opportunity. Hopefully this helps to ease the pain and anxiety associated with loss of existing value.

Furthermore it may make sense to invest a very very very small part of your total investment portfolio in gold or bitcoin. See it as an insurance premium for if or when things really go wrong, and you want to be covered for the consequences of currency depreciation and/or financial system collapse (general debt repayment failure).

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.