Sunday, June 28, 2020

AEX Elliott Wave Musings

This presents the AEX Elliott Wave count as I currently imagine it.

Grand Super Cycle 3 up - Super Cycle 5 upCycle Wave 5 up - Primary Wave 5 up - Intermediate Wave 1 up - Minor Wave 3 up? (end of Cycle Wave 5 expected somewhere in 2027).

(Top Cycle Wave 1 in 1976, Bottom Cycle Wave 2 in 1982, Top Cycle Wave 3 in 1999, Bottom Cycle Wave 4 in 2009 and Top Cycle Wave 5 in 2027?).

For a graphical display look at the AEX Monthly Charts (AEX Monthly Chart I and AEX Monthly Chart II).

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is a human and therefore feeble ex poste attempt to create some order out of seemingly random market movements.

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Stochtrader Stock Portfolio

My personal portfolio consists of the following stocks.

ILMN @ 360,08 (ILMN Daily Chart).
Trend: consolidation in uptrend; S/D-S/R: 340-380 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: no immediate bullish trigger signs.
Position actual: holding number of shares and still accumulating on a dca-basis.

SQ @ 104,30 (SQ Daily Chart).
Trend: consolidation in uptrend; S/D-S/R: 85-105 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: no immediate bullish trigger signs.
Position actual: holding number of shares and still accumulating on a dca-basis.

TSLA @ 959,74 (TSLA Daily Chart).
Trend: consolidation in uptrend; S/D-S/R: 910-1.015 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: no immediate bullish trigger signs.
Position actual: holding number of shares and still accumulating on a dca-basis.

I'm considering purchasing NVTA and TTD.

I like stocks from out-innovating and vertically integrated growth companies in the fields of sustainable energy & transport, internet finance-real estate-advertising, genetics, deep learning and artificial intelligence. The innovation needs to be understandable, likable, disruptive and defendable. I particularly prefer stocks from aforementioned companies that create ecosystems (a host of related products) around there main product.

Trend is defined by the position of highs and lows and/or the existence of a clear trend channel. Consolidation (accumulation/distribution) usually means a breach of dynamic but not of static support/resistance. Corrections usually imply a breach of both.

S/D-S/R abbreviates static and dynamic support/resistance levels. EMA stands for exponential moving average.

I only consider very clean Japanese Candlestick signals (JCS) in the direction of the trend preferably from an oversold or overbought Slow Stochastic (SS). 8EMA is the position of price versus the 8 day EMA.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.