Sunday, January 26, 2020

AEX Elliott Wave Musings Update

This update should be read in conjunction with AEX Elliott Wave Musings which was revised on 13 October, 2019.

It presents the tentative AEX Elliott Wave count as I imagine it.

Supercycle Wave 5 up - Cycle Wave 1 up - Primary Wave 5 up - Intermediate Wave 3 up Minor Wave 4 down (end of Cycle Wave 1 up expected by end of 2022).

Just for the fun of it. These are my guesstimates for the end of Intermediate Waves 3, 4 and 5 (650, 600 and 725).

For a graphical display look at the AEX Monthly Charts (AEX Monthly Chart I and AEX Monthly Chart II).

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is only a human and therefore feeble attempt to create some order out of seemingly random market movements.

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Dashboard Dailies (closing previous business day)

Daily Time Frame Trading

AEX @ 614,24 (AEX Daily Chart)
Bullish environment.
Trade triggers: price levels both near and above the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and above the 8 day EMA.
Trend: up and strong; MAs: 20 day SMA support; S/R: 616,50/602; JCS & SS: no major bullish reversal signs.
Trade actual: trade not considered.

BRENT @ 60,69 (BRENT Daily Chart)
Bullish environment.
Trade triggers: price levels both near and below the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and above the 8 day EMA.
Trend: up and weak; MA's: all MA's support breached (-); S/R: 60/65,50; JCS & SS: no major bullish reversal signs.
Trade actual: trade not considered.

GOLD @ 1.571,90 (GOLD Daily Chart)
Bullish environment.
Trade triggers: price levels both near and above the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and above the 8 day EMA.
Trend: up and strong; MAs: 8 day EMA support; S/R: 1.540/1.615; JCS & SS: no major bullish reversal signs.
Trade actual: trade not considered.

SOYB @ 902 (SOYB Daily Chart)
Bullish environment.
Trade triggers: price levels both near and above the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and above the 8 day EMA.
Trend: up and strong; MAs: 50 day SMA support breached (-); S/R: 900/930; JCS & SS: no major bullish reversal signs.
Trade actual: trade not considered.

SPX @ 3.295,47 (SPX Daily Chart)
Bullish environment.
Trade triggers: price levels both near and above the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and above the 8 day EMA.
Trend: up and strong; MAs: 8 day EMA support breached (-); S/R: 3.260/?; JCS & SS: no major bullish reversal signs.
Trade actual: trade not considered.

UST @ 130,13 (UST Daily Chart)
Bullish environment.
Trade triggers: price levels both near and above the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and above the 8 day EMA.
Trend: up and weak; MAs: 8 day EMA and 50 day SMA support, S/R: 128,50/130,20; SS: no major bullish reversal signs.
Trade actual: longs were bought on 15-01-2020, initial stoploss at 20 day SMA.

XEU @ 110,25 (XEU Daily Chart)
Bearish environment.
Trade triggers: price levels both near and below the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and above the 8 day EMA.
Trend: down and weak; MAs: 50 day SMA support breached (-), S/R: 110/112,50; JCS & SS: no major bearish reversal signs.
Trade actual: trade not considered.

Environment situation, trade triggers and stoplosses are determined on a daily closing basis.

S/R levels are approximations. Sometimes you would have to think more along the line of zones. I only consider very clean JCS patterns in the direction of the environment preferably from an oversold or overbought Slow Stochastic.

For actual trading I use capped futures (limited downside risk) and options.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Tuesday, January 21, 2020

Thursday, January 9, 2020

Which 15 Japanese Candlestick reversal patterns do I use?

These are the 8 Japanese Candlestick bullish reversal patterns I use to confirm buying longs near or at MA levels.

1. Doji
2. Bullish Engulfing
3. Hammer
4. Bullish Harami
5. Morning Star
6. Bullish Kicker
7. Piercing Pattern
8. Inverted Hammer

These are the 8 Japanese Candlestick bearish reversal patterns I use to confirm buying shorts near or at MA levels.

1. Doji
2. Bearish Engulfing
3. Shooting Star
4. Bearish Harami
5. Hanging Man
6. Evening Star
7. Bearish Kicker
8. Dark Cloud Cover

You can look these patterns up on the internet.

The bigger the pattern the more reliable it is.

These patterns function best after long and strong trends resulting in oversold or overbought conditions in the Slow Stochastics. In most cases these patterns become only valid after a strong candle in the opposite direction of the preceding trend.

What do I mean with confirmation

When I consider buying longs near or at important dynamic Support levels (MA's), I need confirmation to actually do so.

This confirmation can consist of an important confluent static Support level, a bullish Japanese Candlestick reversal pattern and/or an oversold Slow Stochastic reading. Two of these three will ususally do.

When I consider buying shorts near or at important dynamic Resistance levels (MA's), I need confirmation to actually do so.

This confirmation can consist of an important confluent static Resistance level, a bearish Japanese Candlestick reversal pattern and/or an overbought Slow Stochastic reading. Two of these three will ususally do.

Wednesday, January 1, 2020

Dashboard Monthlies (closing last business day previous month)

Monthly Time Frame Investing

AEX @ 604,58 (AEX Monthly Chart).
Bullish environment (since April 2012).
Investment triggers: Price levels both near and above the 20, 50 and 200 month SMA.
Investment re-entry trigger: Price level both near and above the 8 month EMA.
Comment: Not near trigger levels, no action required.

BRENT @ 66 (BRENT Monthly Chart).
Bullish environment (since August 2018).
Investment triggers: Price levels both near and above the 20, 50 and 200 month SMA.
Investment re-entry trigger: Price level both near and above the 8 month EMA.
Comment: Oscillating between 20 and 50 month SMA, overhead horizontal resistance is at 74,75, longs are considered upon a break above 20 month SMA and the overhead horizontal resistance.

CRB @ 185,79 (CRB Monthly Chart).
Neutral environment (since much of 2019).
Comment: Without trend longs are not considered, no action required.

GOLD @ 1.523,10 (GOLD Monthly Chart).
Bullish environment (since August 2017).
Investment triggers: Price levels both near and above the 20, 50 and 200 month SMA.
Investment re-entry trigger: Price level both near and above the 8 month EMA.
Comment: Not near trigger levels, no action required.

REIT @ 405,73 (REIT Monthly Chart).
Bullish environment (since September 2011).
Investment triggers: Price levels both near and above the 20, 50 and 200 month SMA.
Investment re-entry trigger: Price level both near and above the 8 month EMA.
Comment: Not near trigger levels, no action required.

SOYB @ 955,50 (SOYB Monthly Chart).
Bearish environment (since November 2014).
Comment: Shorts are never considered, no action required.

SPX @ 3.230,78 (SPX Monthly Chart).
Bullish environment (since August 2011).
Investment triggers: Price levels both near and above the 20, 50 and 200 month SMA.
Investment re-entry trigger: Price level both near and above the 8 month EMA.
Comment: Not near trigger levels, no action required.

UST @ 128,24 (UST Monthly Chart).
Bearish environment (since February 2018).
Comment: Shorts are never considered, no action required.

XEU @ 112,13 (XEU Monthly Chart).
Bullish environment (since August 2018).
Investment triggers: Price levels both near and above the 20, 50 and 200 month SMA.
Investment re-entry trigger: Price level both near and above the 8 month EMA.
Comment: Trend reversal seems imminent, we are getting near the 20 and 50 month SMA, no action required for the moment.

Environment situations are determined on a monthly closing basis.

In this timeframe only "buy long" and "sell long" investments are considered.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.