Thursday, July 2, 2020

AEX Daily Journal

AEX (AEX Daily Chart)

29-06-2020: long term trend is up (since March 2009), intermediate term trend is down (since July 2018) and short term trend is up (since March 2020); because price is below the 8 day EMA there is a downward bias; support is at 530 and resistance is at 575 and 603

30-06-2020: downward bias; support at 530 and resistance at 575 and 603

01-07-2020: consolidation (market does not want to go down); meandering around both the 8 day EMA and 200 day SMA; support at 530 and resistance at 575 and 603

02-07-2020: more of the same

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Dashboard Dailies (closing previous business day)

Daily Time Frame Trading

AEX  562,67 (AEX Daily Chart)
Trend: consolidation in uptrend; S/D-S/R: 530-575/603 and 8 day EMA meandering; JCS/SS/8EMA: no immediate bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: none.

BRENT @ 42,03 (BRENT Daily Chart)
Trend: consolidation in uptrend; S/D-S/R: 36,50-43,50 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: immediate bullish trigger signs on 29-06-2020.
Trade actual: bought longs on 29-06-2020, stoploss at 39,70.

GOLD @ 1.779,90 (GOLD Daily Chart)
Trend: uptrend; S/D-S/R: 1.790-1.900 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: immediate bullish trigger signs on 30-06-2020.
Trade actual: bought longs on 30-06-2020, stoploss at 1.754.

SOYB @ 899 (SOYB Daily Chart)
Trend: uptrend; S/D-S/R: 880-895 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: immediate bullish trigger signs on 30-06-2020.
Trade actual: sold longs on 01-07-2020, reached static resistance level (895).

SPX @ 3.115,86 (SPX Daily Chart)
Trend: consolidation in uptrend; S/D-S/R: 2.950-3.130 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: immediate bullish trigger signs on 30-06-2020.
Trade actual: bought longs on 30-06-2020, stoploss at 3.000.

UST @ 139,18 (UST Daily Chart)
Trend: consolidation in uptrend; S/D-S/R: 137-139,50 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: no immediate bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: none.

XEU @ 112,50 (XEU Daily Chart)
Trend: consolidation in uptrend; S/D-S/R: 111,50-114,50 and 8 day EMA meandering; JCS/SS/8EMA: bullish trigger signs on 22-06-2020.
Trade actual: bought longs on 22-06-2020, stoploss at 111,65.

Trend is defined by the position of highs and lows and/or the existence of a clear trend channel. Consolidation (accumulation/distribution) usually means a breach of dynamic but not of static support/resistance. Corrections usually imply a breach of both.

S/D-S/R abbreviates static and dynamic support/resistance levels. EMA stands for exponential moving average.

I only consider very clean Japanese Candlestick signals (JCS) in the direction of the trend preferably from an oversold or overbought Slow Stochastic (SS). 8EMA is the position of price versus the 8 day EMA.

Stoplosses are on a closing basis.

For actual trading I use capped futures (limited downside risk) and options.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Sunday, June 28, 2020

AEX Elliott Wave Musings

This presents the AEX Elliott Wave count as I currently imagine it.

Grand Super Cycle 3 up - Super Cycle 5 upCycle Wave 5 up - Primary Wave 5 up - Intermediate Wave 1 up - Minor Wave 3 up? (end of Cycle Wave 5 expected somewhere in 2027).

(Top Cycle Wave 1 in 1976, Bottom Cycle Wave 2 in 1982, Top Cycle Wave 3 in 1999, Bottom Cycle Wave 4 in 2009 and Top Cycle Wave 5 in 2027?).

For a graphical display look at the AEX Monthly Charts (AEX Monthly Chart I and AEX Monthly Chart II).

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is a human and therefore feeble ex poste attempt to create some order out of seemingly random market movements.

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Stochtrader Stock Portfolio

My personal portfolio consists of the following stocks.

ILMN @ 360,08 (ILMN Daily Chart).
Trend: consolidation in uptrend; S/D-S/R: 340-380 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: no immediate bullish trigger signs.
Position actual: holding number of shares and still accumulating on a dca-basis.

SQ @ 104,30 (SQ Daily Chart).
Trend: consolidation in uptrend; S/D-S/R: 85-105 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: no immediate bullish trigger signs.
Position actual: holding number of shares and still accumulating on a dca-basis.

TSLA @ 959,74 (TSLA Daily Chart).
Trend: consolidation in uptrend; S/D-S/R: 910-1.015 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: no immediate bullish trigger signs.
Position actual: holding number of shares and still accumulating on a dca-basis.

I'm considering purchasing NVTA and TTD.

I like stocks from out-innovating and vertically integrated growth companies in the fields of sustainable energy & transport, internet finance-real estate-advertising, genetics, deep learning and artificial intelligence. The innovation needs to be understandable, likable, disruptive and defendable. I particularly prefer stocks from aforementioned companies that create ecosystems (a host of related products) around there main product.

Trend is defined by the position of highs and lows and/or the existence of a clear trend channel. Consolidation (accumulation/distribution) usually means a breach of dynamic but not of static support/resistance. Corrections usually imply a breach of both.

S/D-S/R abbreviates static and dynamic support/resistance levels. EMA stands for exponential moving average.

I only consider very clean Japanese Candlestick signals (JCS) in the direction of the trend preferably from an oversold or overbought Slow Stochastic (SS). 8EMA is the position of price versus the 8 day EMA.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Monday, May 4, 2020

Stock Seasonality

The worst six months of the year (May-October) are upon us.

Let's see if this means consolidation, a retest of the recent low or much lower lows.

I do not trade or invest according to seasonality. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Saturday, April 11, 2020

Bullish on Gold

I currently do not have a long position in Gold which I regret. Burned myself too many times buying and selling the most precious of metals.

Will however be a moderate buyer of the shiny stuff at the next daily bullish trade trigger signal.

I think it has not only the potential of besting the all time high of 9 years ago (ca. $ 1.900) but might in future years go well beyond that ($ 2.800 - $ 3.600). Short and intermediate term targets are $ 1.800 and $ 1.925. Yes I know, I hear you thinking, I must be mad suggesting that. And no, I am not one of these permabulls.

Central Banks are lowering interest rates and starting QE programs again. This will lead to further debasement of currencies (more currency chasing the same or fewer goods). Until there is proof that this will actually help the real economy recover and not create new bubbles, these policies might, together with social, economic and financial uncertainty, very well have the unintended consequence of increasing the value of gold. This is, in a nutshell, my fundamental rationale for liking gold. The technical reasons are laid out below.

GOLD @ 1.752,80 (GOLD Daily Chart)
Bullish environment (only longs are considered).
Trade triggers: price levels both near and above the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and above the 8 day EMA.
Trend: up and strong; MAs: 8 day EMA support; JCS & SS: no major bullish reversal signs.
Trade actual: waiting for bullish trade trigger signals.

GOLD @ 1.523,10 (GOLD Monthly Chart).
Bullish environment (since August 2017).
Investment triggers: Price levels both near and above the 20, 50 and 200 month SMA.
Investment re-entry trigger: Price level both near and above the 8 month EMA.
Trend: up and strong; MAs: 8 month EMA support; SS: no major bullish reversal signs.
Buy/Sell signals: buy longs signal end of November 2018.

Especially like the rounded bottom in the monthly chart.

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Monday, March 16, 2020

Blood in the Streets

"Buy when there is blood in the streets, even when it's your own" (Baron Rothschild).

"Be fearful when others are gready, and greedy when others are fearful" (Warren Buffett).

These quotes seem to be applicable now.

So is this a good time to be buying stocks?

I have no idea. Probably not.

But it might be a good idea to have a look at some attractive stocks you always wanted to buy but could never afford. And decide for yourself at what levels you might want to ease into those stocks.

This pandemic is a very serious situation. But it is not the end of the world. We will deal with it.

Stay safe and healthy.

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Thursday, January 9, 2020

Which 15 Japanese Candlestick reversal patterns do I use?

These are the 8 Japanese Candlestick bullish reversal patterns I use to confirm buying longs near or at MA levels.

1. Doji
2. Bullish Engulfing
3. Hammer
4. Bullish Harami
5. Morning Star
6. Bullish Kicker
7. Piercing Pattern
8. Inverted Hammer

These are the 8 Japanese Candlestick bearish reversal patterns I use to confirm buying shorts near or at MA levels.

1. Doji
2. Bearish Engulfing
3. Shooting Star
4. Bearish Harami
5. Hanging Man
6. Evening Star
7. Bearish Kicker
8. Dark Cloud Cover

You can look these patterns up on the internet.

The bigger the pattern the more reliable it is.

These patterns function best after long and strong trends resulting in oversold or overbought conditions in the Slow Stochastics. In most cases these patterns become only valid after a strong candle in the opposite direction of the preceding trend.

What do I mean with confirmation

When I consider buying longs near or at important dynamic Support levels (MA's), I need confirmation to actually do so.

This confirmation can consist of an important confluent static Support level, a bullish Japanese Candlestick reversal pattern and/or an oversold Slow Stochastic reading. Two of these three will ususally do.

When I consider buying shorts near or at important dynamic Resistance levels (MA's), I need confirmation to actually do so.

This confirmation can consist of an important confluent static Resistance level, a bearish Japanese Candlestick reversal pattern and/or an overbought Slow Stochastic reading. Two of these three will ususally do.