Sunday, November 22, 2020

AEX Elliott Wave Musings

This presents the AEX Elliott Wave count as I currently imagine it.

Grand Super Cycle 3 up - Super Cycle 5 upCycle Wave 5 up - Primary Wave 5 up - Intermediate Wave 3 up - Minor Wave 1 up (?) (end of Cycle Wave 5 expected somewhere in 2027).

(Top Cycle Wave 1 in 1976, Bottom Cycle Wave 2 in 1982, Top Cycle Wave 3 in 1999, Bottom Cycle Wave 4 in 2009 and Top Cycle Wave 5 in 2027?).

For a graphical display look at the AEX Monthly Chart (AEX Monthly Chart I).

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is a human and therefore feeble ex poste attempt to create some order out of seemingly random market movements.

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Stochtrader Stock Portfolio (weekly update)

My (core) personal portfolio consists of the following stocks.

GBTC @ 21,24 (GBTC Daily Chart).
Trend: bullishuptrending; S/D-S/R: 10-25,20 and 8 day EMA support.
Position actual: happy with my current exposure, will only accumulate upon serious retracements.
(most recently bought some shares on 09/11/13-11-2020).

ILMN @ 300,80 (ILMN Daily Chart).
Trend: bearish & downtrending; S/D-S/R: 260,42-356 and 8 day EMA resistance.
Position actual: holding number of shares and stopped accumulating on a dca-basis.

LMND @ 63,15 (LMND Daily Chart).
Trend: undefined & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 44,11-72,55 and 8 day EMA support.
Position actual: holding number of shares and stopped accumulating on a dca-basis.

SQ @ 195,97 (SQ Daily Chart).
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 151,10-201,33 and 8 day EMA support.
Position actual: holding number of shares and stopped accumulating on a dca-basis.
(most recently bought some shares on 15-10-2020).

TSLA @ 489,61 (TSLA Daily Chart).
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 396,03-502,50 and 8 day EMA support.
Position actual: holding number of shares and still accumulating on a dca-basis.
(most recently bought some shares on 30-10-2020).

I like stocks from innovative and vertically integrated growth companies in the fields of production and consumption of sustainable energy, internet finance-real estate-advertising, genetics and artificial intelligence-machine learning-deep learning. The innovation needs to be understandable, likable, disruptive and defensible. I particularly prefer stocks from aforementioned companies that create ecosystems (a host of related products) around there main product.

Next to my core portfolio I also have a flexible one I only use for trading purposes. It is based on Japanese Candlestick analysis.

Trend is defined by the position of price vis-a-vis the 8 day EMA and 200 day SMA. Trendiness is defined by position of price vis-a-vis the 8 day EMA.

S/D-S/R abbreviates static and dynamic support/resistance levels.

EMA and SMA stand for exponential and simple moving average respectively.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Saturday, November 21, 2020

Daily Dashboard (based on previous business day)

 Daily Time Frame Trading

AEX  601,62 (AEX Daily Chart)
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 527,86-632,12 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bearish spinning top/+/+; no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: none.

SPX @ 3.557,54 (SPX Daily Chart)
Trend: neutral & downtrending; S/D-S/R: 3.233,94-3.645,99 and 8 day EMA support broken; JCS/SS/8EMA: bearish shooting star/-/-; no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: none.

COMPQ @ 11.854,97 (COMPQ Daily Chart)
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 10.822,57-12.074,06 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bearish engulfing/-/+; no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: none.

XEU @ 118,60 (XEU Daily Chart)
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 116,13-119,20 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bearish harami/-/+; no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: sold longs on 20-11-2020 at profit, reason bearish harami.

BTCUSD @ 18.704,86 (BTCUSD Daily Chart)
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 8.955,68-19.870,62 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bullish sandwich dojis/+/+; bullish trigger signs on 24-09-2020.
Trade actual: bought longs on 24-09-2020, stoploss at 8.955,68.

GOLD @ 1.872,40 (GOLD Daily Chart)
Trend: neutral & downtrending; S/D-S/R: 1.848-1.966,10 and 8 day EMA resistance; JCS/SS/8EMA: huge bearish engulfing/-/-; no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: none.

UST @ 138,30 (UST Daily Chart)
Trend: bullish & uptrending; S/D-S/R: 137,30-139,17 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: ?/+/+; no bullish trigger signs.
Trade actual: none.

Trend is defined by the position of price vis-a-vis the 8 day EMA and 200 day SMA. Trendiness is defined by position of price vis-a-vis the 8 day EMA.

S/D-S/R abbreviates static and dynamic support/resistance levels.

EMA and SMA stand for exponential and simple moving average respectively.

I only consider very clean Japanese Candlestick signals (JCS) in the direction of the trend preferably from an oversold or overbought Slow Stochastic (SS). 8EMA is the position of price versus the 8 day EMA.

Stoplosses are on a closing basis.

For actual trading I use capped futures (limited downside risk) and options.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Blood in the Streets

"Buy when there is blood in the streets, even when it's your own" (Baron Rothschild).

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful" (Warren Buffett).

These quotes seem to be applicable now. So is this a good time to be buying stocks? Maybe not immediately! But a timely consideration of the below mentioned might benefit you.

If markets consolidate, correct or enter bear market territory it is usually a good idea to start thinking about the levels at which you want to add to the stocks that are part of your core portfolio. The one you hold for the long term.

For great investors the sun always shines. If markets go up they become more wealthy, if markets go down they are able to buy good stuff more cheaply. So see declines less as a threat and more as an opportunity.

Hopefully this helps to ease the pain and anxiety associated with loss of existing value. 

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Monday, October 26, 2020

Buy the Dip (minder-grinder)

Buy the dip. At least in stock markets. But why?

This advice is certainly not sound all the time but has some merit to it.

Markets go up, 75% in time, way more often than they go down, 25% in time.

Governments and Central Banks have a stake in the markets (wealth effect & inflation). They will do everything in their power (MMT, i.e. monetary and fiscal policies) to either stabilize markets or propel them higher. And people in general are naturally more inclined to optimism (greed or fear of missing out) than to pessimism (fear of loss). And of course one of humanity's main endeavours is to increase wealth (market capital & dividends).

Also bears (swift, violent and erratic) are much more difficult to ride than bulls (slow, mild and grinding).

So it pays to be bullish more often than not. I normally stay bullish as long as the main indexes remain above the 8 day EMA. Below the 8 day EMA and above the 200 day SMA I'm neutral. I only turn bearish when we go below both the 8 day EMA and 200 day SMA, and I remain so, until the indexes move above the 8 day EMA again. This means I'm currently neutral.

If markets consolidate, correct or enter bear market territory it is usually a good idea to start thinking about the levels at which you want to add to the stocks that are already part of your core portfolio. The one you hold for the long term.

For great investors the sun always shines. If markets go up they become more wealthy, if markets go down they are able to buy good stuff more cheaply. So see declines less as a threat and more as an opportunity.

Hopefully this helps to ease the pain and anxiety associated with loss of existing value. 

Furthermore it may make sense to invest a very, very, very small part of your total investment portfolio in gold or bitcoin (for me that is about 1%). See it as an insurance premium for when things really go wrong, and you want to be covered for the consequences of serious currency depreciation and/or financial system reorganisation (general debt rescheduling).

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.


Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Updates

There will be no updates until Monday.

Trade and invest safe.

Saturday, July 25, 2020

Bullish on Gold (updated from 11-04-2020)

I currently do not have a long position in Gold which I regret (rectified that). Burned myself too many times buying and selling the most precious of metals.

Will however be a moderate buyer of the shiny stuff at the next daily bullish trade trigger signal (has in the meantime happened)

I think it has not only the potential of besting the all time high of 9 years ago (ca. $ 1.900) but might in future years go well beyond that ($ 2.800 - $ 3.600). Short and intermediate term targets are $ 1.800 and $ 1.925. Yes I know, I hear you thinking, I must be mad suggesting that. And no, I am not one of these permabulls.

Central Banks are lowering interest rates and starting QE programs again. This will lead to further debasement of currencies (more currency chasing the same or fewer goods). Until there is proof that this will actually help the real economy recover and not create new bubbles, these policies might, together with social, economic and financial uncertainty, very well have the unintended consequence of increasing the value of gold. This is, in a nutshell, my fundamental rationale for liking gold. The technical reasons are laid out below.

GOLD @ 1.897,50 (GOLD Daily Chart) (updated)
Trend: uptrend; S/D-S/R: 1.791,10-1.923,70 and 8 day EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bullish trigger signs on 17-07-2020.
Trade actual: bought longs on 17-07-2020, stoploss at 8 day EMA.

GOLD @ 1.523,10 (GOLD Monthly Chart) (updated)
Trend: uptrend; S/D-S/R: 1.450,90-1.923,70 and 8 month EMA support; JCS/SS/8EMA: bullish trigger signs in December 2018.

Especially like the rounded bottom in the monthly chart.

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Thursday, January 9, 2020

Which 15 Japanese Candlestick reversal patterns do I use?

These are the 8 Japanese Candlestick bullish reversal patterns I use to confirm buying longs near or at MA levels.

1. Doji
2. Bullish Engulfing
3. Hammer
4. Bullish Harami
5. Morning Star
6. Bullish Kicker
7. Piercing Pattern
8. Inverted Hammer

These are the 8 Japanese Candlestick bearish reversal patterns I use to confirm buying shorts near or at MA levels.

1. Doji
2. Bearish Engulfing
3. Shooting Star
4. Bearish Harami
5. Hanging Man
6. Evening Star
7. Bearish Kicker
8. Dark Cloud Cover

You can look these patterns up on the internet.

The bigger the pattern the more reliable it is.

These patterns function best after long and strong trends resulting in oversold or overbought conditions in the Slow Stochastics. In most cases these patterns become only valid after a strong candle in the opposite direction of the preceding trend.

What do I mean with confirmation

When I consider buying longs near or at important dynamic Support levels (MA's), I need confirmation to actually do so.

This confirmation can consist of an important confluent static Support level, a bullish Japanese Candlestick reversal pattern and/or an oversold Slow Stochastic reading. Two of these three will ususally do.

When I consider buying shorts near or at important dynamic Resistance levels (MA's), I need confirmation to actually do so.

This confirmation can consist of an important confluent static Resistance level, a bearish Japanese Candlestick reversal pattern and/or an overbought Slow Stochastic reading. Two of these three will ususally do.