Tuesday, March 31, 2020

AEX Bounce levels

Potential levels for the AEX to bounce off are:

- the 413,74 level c.q. the 400-415 zone (50% retracement 2009-2020),
30-03-2020: we're in between 8 day EMA and 20 day SMA; indecision (400 or 510)
31-03-2020: as long as we stay above 8 day EMA we anticipate Fibonacci levels 496 and 510 to come into play
- the 380 level (Primary Wave 1 high (2011) & Primary Wave 4 low (2016)), and
- the 362,12 level (61,8% retracement 2009-2020).

After that it gets kind of scary.

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Dashboard Dailies (closing previous business day)

Daily Time Frame Trading

AEX @ 475,98 (AEX Daily Chart)
Bearish environment (only shorts are considered).
Trade triggers: price levels both near and below the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and below the 8 day EMA.
Trend: down and strong; MAs: 8 day EMA and 20 day SMA resistance broken; JCS & SS: no bearish reversal signs.
Trade actual: longs were sold on 20-02-2020 at profit, stoplossed at 8 day EMA.

BRENT @ 26,42 (BRENT Daily Chart)
Bearish environment (only shorts are considered).
Trade triggers: price levels both near and below the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and below the 8 day EMA.
Trend: down and strong; MAs: 8 day EMA resistance; JCS & SS: major bearish reversal signs on 24-02-2020.
Trade actual: shorts were sold on 09-03-2020 at huge profit, too far below 8 day EMA.

GOLD @ 1.643,20 (GOLD Daily Chart)
Bullish environment (only longs are considered).
Trade triggers: price levels both near and above the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and above the 8 day EMA.
Trend: up and strong; MAs: all MA support retaken; JCS & SS: bullish reversal signs on 23-03-2020.
Trade actual: longs were sold on 24-03-2020 at considerable profit, too far above 8 day EMA.

SOYB @ 882,25 (SOYB Daily Chart)
Bearish environment (only shorts are considered).
Trade triggers: price levels both near and below the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and below the 8 day EMA.
Trend: down and strong; MAs: 50 day SMA resistance; JCS & SS: no major bearish reversal signs.
Trade actual: waiting for bearish trade trigger signals.

SPX @ 2.626,65 (SPX Daily Chart)
Bearish environment (only shorts are considered).
Trade triggers: price levels both near and below the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and below the 8 day EMA.
Trend: down and strong; MAs: 20 day SMA resistances; JCS & SS: bullish reversal signs on 25-03-2020.
Trade actual: longs were bought on 25-03-2020, stoploss at 8 day EMA.

UST @ 138,72 (UST Daily Chart)
Bullish environment (only longs are considered).
Trade triggers: price levels both near and above the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and above the 8 day EMA.
Trend: up and strong; MAs: 8 day EMA and 20 day SMA support; SS: no major bullish reversal signs.
Trade actual: waiting for bullish trade trigger signals.

XEU @ 110,41 (XEU Daily Chart)
Bearish environment (only shorts are considered).
Trade triggers: price levels both near and below the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and below the 8 day EMA.
Trend: down and weak; MAs: 20 day SMA resistance; JCS & SS: major bearish reversal signs on 11-03-2020.
Trade actual: shorts were sold on 24-03-2020 at considerable profit, stoplossed at 8 day EMA.

Environment situation, trade triggers and stoplosses are determined on a daily closing basis.

S/R levels are approximations. Sometimes you would have to think more along the line of zones. I only consider very clean JCS patterns in the direction of the environment preferably from an oversold or overbought Slow Stochastic.

For actual trading I use capped futures (limited downside risk) and options.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Sunday, March 29, 2020

AEX Elliott Wave Musings Update

This presents the tentative AEX Elliott Wave count as I imagine it.

Supercycle Wave 5 up - Cycle Wave 2 down - Primary Wave C down (end of Cycle Wave 2 expected somewhere in 2021).

This would, by the way, fit in with the results of extrapolating the Benner-Fibonacci Cycle (top 2018, major trough 2021, top 2027, trough 2029 and top 2037).

For a graphical display look at the AEX Monthly Charts (AEX Monthly Chart I and AEX Monthly Chart II).

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is only a human and therefore feeble attempt to create some order out of seemingly random market movements.

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Monday, March 16, 2020

Blood in the Streets

"Buy when there is blood in the streets, even when it's your own" (Baron Rothschild).

"Be fearful when others are gready, and greedy when others are fearful" (Warren Buffett).

These quotes seem to be applicable now.

So is this a good time to be buying stocks?

I have no idea. Probably not.

But it might be a good idea to have a look at some attractive stocks you always wanted to buy but could never afford. And decide for yourself at what levels you might want to ease into those stocks.

This pandemic is a very serious situation. But it is not the end of the world. We will deal with it.

Stay safe and healthy.

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Saturday, February 29, 2020

Updates

There will be no updates until next Wednesday.

Good luck with trading and investing in these volatile conditions.

Thursday, January 9, 2020

Which 15 Japanese Candlestick reversal patterns do I use?

These are the 8 Japanese Candlestick bullish reversal patterns I use to confirm buying longs near or at MA levels.

1. Doji
2. Bullish Engulfing
3. Hammer
4. Bullish Harami
5. Morning Star
6. Bullish Kicker
7. Piercing Pattern
8. Inverted Hammer

These are the 8 Japanese Candlestick bearish reversal patterns I use to confirm buying shorts near or at MA levels.

1. Doji
2. Bearish Engulfing
3. Shooting Star
4. Bearish Harami
5. Hanging Man
6. Evening Star
7. Bearish Kicker
8. Dark Cloud Cover

You can look these patterns up on the internet.

The bigger the pattern the more reliable it is.

These patterns function best after long and strong trends resulting in oversold or overbought conditions in the Slow Stochastics. In most cases these patterns become only valid after a strong candle in the opposite direction of the preceding trend.

What do I mean with confirmation

When I consider buying longs near or at important dynamic Support levels (MA's), I need confirmation to actually do so.

This confirmation can consist of an important confluent static Support level, a bullish Japanese Candlestick reversal pattern and/or an oversold Slow Stochastic reading. Two of these three will ususally do.

When I consider buying shorts near or at important dynamic Resistance levels (MA's), I need confirmation to actually do so.

This confirmation can consist of an important confluent static Resistance level, a bearish Japanese Candlestick reversal pattern and/or an overbought Slow Stochastic reading. Two of these three will ususally do.