Sunday, October 13, 2019

AEX Elliott Wave Musings

My current Elliott Wave count assumption is that we are in Supercycle Wave 5.

A Supercycle Wave 4 manifested itself during the 2000-2009 period.

Since then we have been in Cycle Wave 1 of Supercycle Wave 5.

Guesstimates as to where the Primary Waves of Cycle Wave 1 of Supercycle Wave 5 have ended are as follows, Primary Wave 1 in 2010, Primary Wave 2 in 2011, Primary Wave 3 in 2018 (its Intermediate Wave 3, ending in 2015, had the highest RSI), Primary Wave 4 in 2019. In this sequence Primary Wave 5 might end somewhere in 2022.

An alternate scenario is that Cycle Wave 2 of Supercycle Wave 5 has already started and that we are in Primary Wave B up. At the moment I do not rate that possibility high.

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is only a human and therefore feeble attempt to create some order out of random market movements.

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.