Monday, October 21, 2019

Stock Seasonality

The worst six months of the year (May-October) gave us a bit of a corrective consolidation this year.

We are slowly approaching the best six months (November-April) of the year.

Let's see if a bullish bias for stocks will develop.

I do not trade or invest according to seasonality. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Sunday, October 13, 2019

AEX Elliott Wave Musings

My current Elliott Wave count assumption is that we are in Supercycle Wave 5.

A Supercycle Wave 4 manifested itself during the 2000-2009 period.

Since then we have been in Cycle Wave 1 of Supercycle Wave 5.

Guesstimates as to where the Primary Waves of Cycle Wave 1 of Supercycle Wave 5 have ended are as follows, Primary Wave 1 in 2010, Primary Wave 2 in 2011, Primary Wave 3 in 2018 (its Intermediate Wave 3, ending in 2015, had the highest RSI), Primary Wave 4 in 2019. In this sequence Primary Wave 5 might end somewhere in 2022.

An alternate scenario is that Cycle Wave 2 of Supercycle Wave 5 has already started and that we are in Primary Wave B up. At the moment I do not rate that possibility high.

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is only a human and therefore feeble attempt to create some order out of random market movements.

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.