Thursday, September 19, 2019

Dashboard Dailies (closing previous business day)

Daily Time Frame Trading

AEX @ 576,69
Bullish environmentBullish trade mode.
Trade mode start: 28-08-2019 (548,38).
Trade mode exit:.
Trade actual: Longs opened on 28-08-2019. Longs closed (50%) on 30-08-2019 @ profit (price above upper Bollinger Band). Longs closed (50%) on 16-09-2019 @ profit (RSI nearly overbought).

BRENT @ 62,66
Bearish environment. Bullish trade mode.
Trade mode start: 04-09-2019 (60,70).
Trade mode exit:.
Trade actual:.

GOLD @ 1.515,80
Bullish environment. Bearish trade mode.
Trade mode start: 05-09-2019 (1.525,50).
Trade mode exit:.
Trade actual:.

SOYB @ 888,75
Bearish environment. Bullish trade mode.
Trade mode start: 10-09-2019 (872).
Trade mode exit:.
Trade actual:.

SPX @ 3.006,73
Bullish environment. Bullish trade mode.
Trade mode start: 29-08-2019 (2.924,58).
Trade mode exit:.
Trade actual: Longs opened on 29-08-2019. Longs sold (50%) on 05-09-2019 @ profit (price above upper Bollinger Band).

UST @ 129,36
Bullish environment. Bearish trade mode.
Trade mode start: 05-09-2019 (131,19).
Trade mode exit:.
Trade actual:.

XEU @ 110,30
Bearish environment. Bearish trade mode.
Trade mode start: 18-09-2019 (110,30).
Trade mode exit:.
Trade actual: Shorts opened on 18-09-2019.

Trade modes are determined on a daily closing basis.

For actual trading I use capped futures (limited downside risk) and options.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Seasonality

Be aware that we are almost entering the last one and a half week of September and the whole month of October.

From a seasonal perspective this period on average has not been very good for stocks.

Sunday, September 15, 2019

AEX Elliott Wave Musings Update

This update should be read in conjunction with AEX Elliott Wave Musings which was revised on 10 March, 2019.

It presents the tentative AEX Elliott Wave count as I imagine it.

Supercycle Wave 5 up - Cycle Wave 1 up - Primary Wave 5 up - Intermediate Wave 3 up - Minor Wave 1 up.

For a graphical display look at the AEX Monthly Charts (AEX Monthly Chart I and AEX Monthly Chart II).

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is only a human and therefore feeble attempt to create some order out of seemingly random market movements.

I don't trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Sunday, September 1, 2019

Dashboard Monthlies (closing last business day previous month)

Monthly Time Frame Investing

AEX @ 572,09 (AEX Monthly Chart).
Investment mode since 30-04-2019.

BRENT @ 65,05 (BRENT Monthly Chart).
Investment mode since 31-01-2019.

CRB @ 178,53 (CRB Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 31-10-2014.

GOLD @ 1.437,80 (GOLD Monthly Chart).
Investment mode since 31-12-2018.

REIT @ 388,60 (REIT Monthly Chart).
Investment mode since 31-01-2019.

SOYB @ 881,50 (SOYB Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 30-06-2018.

SPX @ 2.980,38 (SPX Monthly Chart).
Investment mode since 31-10-2011.

UST @ 127,92 (UST Monthly Chart).
Investment mode since 31-05-2019.

XEU @ 110,76 (XEU Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 31-07-2019.

Investment and divestment modes are determined on a monthly closing basis.

Investment means going long as of mentioned date, divestment means selling these longs as of mentioned date. Shorting is, in the investment context, not considered.

Investment in stocks means buying cyclical values, divestment in stocks means selling cyclical values or exchanging them for defensive plays. Shorting stocks is, in the investment context, not considered.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.


Friday, August 30, 2019

AEX Focus (closing previous business day)

AEX @ 554,28
Bearish environmentBearish trend trade mode.
Trade mode start: 06-08-2019 (537,28).
Trade mode exit:.
Trade actual: Shorts opened on 09-08-2019 @ 542,22.
Comments: Stoploss on the shorts is the 50 day SMA (closing basis).

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Sunday, March 10, 2019

AEX Elliott Wave Musings

My current Elliott Wave count assumption is that we are in Supercycle Wave 5.

A Supercycle Wave 4 manifested itself during the 2000-2009 period.

Since then we have been in Cycle Wave 1 of Supercycle Wave 5.

Guesstimates as to where the Primary Waves of Cycle Wave 1 of Supercycle Wave 5 have ended are as follows, Primary Wave 1 in 2010, Primary Wave 2 in 2011, Primary Wave 3 in 2015, Primary Wave 4 in 2016 and Primary Wave 5 in 2018.

Cycle Wave 2 of Supercycle Wave 5 may have started. The hypothetical time horizon on the remainder of Cycle Wave 2 is mid 2021. Ideally Primary Wave A around mid 2019 targets approximately 430, Primary Wave B around mid 2020 targets approximately 525 and Primary Wave C around mid 2021 targets approximately 385.

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is only a human and therefore feeble attempt to create some order out of random market movements.

I don't trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.