Friday, November 22, 2019

Dashboard Dailies (closing previous business day)

Daily Time Frame Trading

AEX @ 589,85 (AEX Daily Chart)
Bullish environmentBullish trade mode.
Current. Trade mode start: 15-10-2019 (579,87). Trade mode exit:.
Actual trade: Longs opened on 15-10-2019 (579,87). Longs closed (50%) on 05-11-2019 @ profit (price above upper Bollinger Band). Longs closed (50%) on 06-11-2019 @ profit (price above upper Bollinger Band).

BRENT @ 63,97 (BRENT Daily Chart)
Bearish environment. Bullish trade mode.
Current. Trade mode start: 22-10-2019 (59,70). Trade mode exit:.
Actual trade: Only when environment and trade mode point in the same direction.

GOLD @ 1.463,60 (GOLD Daily Chart)
Bullish environment. Bearish trade mode.
Current. Trade mode start: 07-11-2019 (1.466,40). Trade mode exit:.
Actual trade: Only when environment and trade mode point in the same direction.

SOYB @ 901 (SOYB Daily Chart)
Bullish environmentBearish trade mode.
Current. Trade mode start: 06-11-2019 (927,50). Trade mode exit:.
Actual trade: Only when environment and trade mode point in the same direction.

SPX @ 3.103,54 (SPX Daily Chart)
Bullish environment. Bullish trade mode.
Current. Trade mode start: 16-10-2019 (2.989,69). Trade mode exit:.
Actual trade: Longs closed on 15-11-2019 @ profit (RSI in overbought territory).

UST @ 129,66 (UST Daily Chart)
Bullish environment. Bullish trade mode.
Previous. Trade mode start: 15-10-2019 (129,98). Trade mode exit: 20-11-2019 (130,05).
Current. Trade mode start: 20-11-2019 (130,05). Trade mode exit:.
Actual trade: Longs opened on 20-11-2019 (130,05).

XEU @ 110,61 (XEU Daily Chart)
Bearish environment. Bearish trade mode.
Current. Trade mode start: 11-10-2019 (110,42). Trade mode exit:.
Actual trade: Shorts closed on 15-11-2019 @ loss (price above 8 day EMA).

Environment situation and trade modes are determined on a daily closing basis.

For actual trading I use capped futures (limited downside risk) and options.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Sunday, November 17, 2019

AEX Elliott Wave Musings Update

This update should be read in conjunction with AEX Elliott Wave Musings which was revised on 13 October, 2019.

It presents the tentative AEX Elliott Wave count as I imagine it.

Supercycle Wave 5 up - Cycle Wave 1 up - Primary Wave 5 up - Intermediate Wave 3 up - Minor Wave 3 up.

For a graphical display look at the AEX Monthly Charts (AEX Monthly Chart I and AEX Monthly Chart II and AEX Monthly Chart III ).

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is only a human and therefore feeble attempt to create some order out of seemingly random market movements.

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Friday, November 1, 2019

Dashboard Monthlies (closing last business day previous month)

Monthly Time Frame Investing

AEX @ 576,63 (AEX Monthly Chart).
Bullish environment. Bullish investment mode (since 30-06-2019).
Actual investment:.

BRENT @ 59,62 (BRENT Monthly Chart).
Bearish environment. Bearish investment mode (since 28-02-2019).
Actual investment:.

CRB @ 176,89 (CRB Monthly Chart).
Bearish environment. Bearish investment mode (since 31-12-2018).
Actual investment:.

GOLD @ 1.514,80 (GOLD Monthly Chart).
Bullish environment. Bullish investment mode (since 30-04-2019).
Actual investment:.

REIT @ 412,86 (REIT Monthly Chart).
Bullish environment. Bullish investment mode (since 31-01-2019).
Actual investment:.

SOYB @ 932,25 (SOYB Monthly Chart).
Bearish environment. Bearish investment mode (since 30-06-2018).
Actual investment:.

SPX @ 3.037,56 (SPX Monthly Chart).
Bullish environment. Bullish investment mode (since 30-06-2016).
Actual investment:.

UST @ 130,42 (UST Monthly Chart).
Bearish environmentBullish investment mode (since 31-03-2019).
Actual investment:.

XEU @ 111,55 (XEU Monthly Chart).
Bearish environment. Bearish investment mode (since 31-10-2018).
Actual investment:.

Investment modes are determined on a monthly closing basis.

In this timeframe only "buy long" and "sell long" investments are considered.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.


Monday, October 21, 2019

Stock Seasonality

The worst six months of the year (May-October) gave us a bit of a corrective consolidation this year.

We are slowly approaching the best six months (November-April) of the year.

Let's see if a bullish bias for stocks will develop.

I do not trade or invest according to seasonality. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Sunday, October 13, 2019

AEX Elliott Wave Musings

My current Elliott Wave count assumption is that we are in Supercycle Wave 5.

A Supercycle Wave 4 manifested itself during the 2000-2009 period.

Since then we have been in Cycle Wave 1 of Supercycle Wave 5.

Guesstimates as to where the Primary Waves of Cycle Wave 1 of Supercycle Wave 5 have ended are as follows, Primary Wave 1 in 2010, Primary Wave 2 in 2011, Primary Wave 3 in 2018 (its Intermediate Wave 3, ending in 2015, had the highest RSI), Primary Wave 4 in 2019. In this sequence Primary Wave 5 might end somewhere in 2022.

An alternate scenario is that Cycle Wave 2 of Supercycle Wave 5 has already started and that we are in Primary Wave B up. At the moment I do not rate that possibility high.

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is only a human and therefore feeble attempt to create some order out of random market movements.

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.