Tuesday, March 31, 2020

AEX Bounce levels

Potential levels for the AEX to bounce off are:

- the 413,74 level c.q. the 400-415 zone (50% retracement 2009-2020),
30-03-2020: we're in between 8 day EMA and 20 day SMA; indecision (400 or 510)
31-03-2020: as long as we stay above 8 day EMA we anticipate Fibonacci levels 496 and 510 to come into play
- the 380 level (Primary Wave 1 high (2011) & Primary Wave 4 low (2016)), and
- the 362,12 level (61,8% retracement 2009-2020).

After that it gets kind of scary.

I do not trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Dashboard Dailies (closing previous business day)

Daily Time Frame Trading

AEX @ 475,98 (AEX Daily Chart)
Bearish environment (only shorts are considered).
Trade triggers: price levels both near and below the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and below the 8 day EMA.
Trend: down and strong; MAs: 8 day EMA and 20 day SMA resistance broken; JCS & SS: no bearish reversal signs.
Trade actual: longs were sold on 20-02-2020 at profit, stoplossed at 8 day EMA.

BRENT @ 26,42 (BRENT Daily Chart)
Bearish environment (only shorts are considered).
Trade triggers: price levels both near and below the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and below the 8 day EMA.
Trend: down and strong; MAs: 8 day EMA resistance; JCS & SS: major bearish reversal signs on 24-02-2020.
Trade actual: shorts were sold on 09-03-2020 at huge profit, too far below 8 day EMA.

GOLD @ 1.643,20 (GOLD Daily Chart)
Bullish environment (only longs are considered).
Trade triggers: price levels both near and above the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and above the 8 day EMA.
Trend: up and strong; MAs: all MA support retaken; JCS & SS: bullish reversal signs on 23-03-2020.
Trade actual: longs were sold on 24-03-2020 at considerable profit, too far above 8 day EMA.

SOYB @ 882,25 (SOYB Daily Chart)
Bearish environment (only shorts are considered).
Trade triggers: price levels both near and below the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and below the 8 day EMA.
Trend: down and strong; MAs: 50 day SMA resistance; JCS & SS: no major bearish reversal signs.
Trade actual: waiting for bearish trade trigger signals.

SPX @ 2.626,65 (SPX Daily Chart)
Bearish environment (only shorts are considered).
Trade triggers: price levels both near and below the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and below the 8 day EMA.
Trend: down and strong; MAs: 20 day SMA resistances; JCS & SS: bullish reversal signs on 25-03-2020.
Trade actual: longs were bought on 25-03-2020, stoploss at 8 day EMA.

UST @ 138,72 (UST Daily Chart)
Bullish environment (only longs are considered).
Trade triggers: price levels both near and above the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and above the 8 day EMA.
Trend: up and strong; MAs: 8 day EMA and 20 day SMA support; SS: no major bullish reversal signs.
Trade actual: waiting for bullish trade trigger signals.

XEU @ 110,41 (XEU Daily Chart)
Bearish environment (only shorts are considered).
Trade triggers: price levels both near and below the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA.
Trade re-entry trigger: price levels both near and below the 8 day EMA.
Trend: down and weak; MAs: 20 day SMA resistance; JCS & SS: major bearish reversal signs on 11-03-2020.
Trade actual: shorts were sold on 24-03-2020 at considerable profit, stoplossed at 8 day EMA.

Environment situation, trade triggers and stoplosses are determined on a daily closing basis.

S/R levels are approximations. Sometimes you would have to think more along the line of zones. I only consider very clean JCS patterns in the direction of the environment preferably from an oversold or overbought Slow Stochastic.

For actual trading I use capped futures (limited downside risk) and options.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.