Sunday, February 17, 2019

AEX Elliott Wave Musings Update

This update should be read in conjunction with AEX Elliott Wave Musings which was revised on 26 December, 2016.

It presents the tentative Elliott Wave count as I imagine it.

SuperCycle (V) up - Cycle II down - Primary A down - Intermediate B up. The hypothetical time horizon on the remainder of Cycle II is mid 2021. Ideally Primary A around mid 2019 targets approximately 430, Primary B around mid 2020 targets approximately 525 and Primary C around mid 2021 targets approximately 385.

For a graphical display look at the AEX Monthly Charts (AEX Monthly Chart I and AEX Monthly Chart II).

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is only a human and therefore feeble attempt to create some order out of seemingly random market movements.

I don't trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Saturday, February 16, 2019

Dashboard Dailies (closing previous business day)

Daily Time Frame Trading

AEX @ 539,62 (Divestment mode)
Bullish trend trade mode.
Trade mode start: 18-01-2019 (509,70).
Trade mode exit:.
Trade actual: Longs closed on 07-02-2019 @ profit (reason: close below low previous business day).

BRENT @ 66,25 (Divestment mode)
Bullish trend trade mode.
Trade mode start: 12-02-2019 (62,42).
Trade mode exit:.
Trade actual: Longs opened on 14-02-2019 (64,57).

GOLD @ 1.322,10 (Investment mode)
Bullish trend trade mode.
Trade mode start: 13-02-2019 (1.315,10).
Trade mode exit:.
Trade actual: Longs opened on 13-02-2019.

SOYB @ 907,50 (Divestment mode)
No trend trade mode.
Trade mode start: 05-02-2019 (920,25).
Trade mode exit: 07-02-2019 (913,25) (trend trade mode window loss).
Trade actual: No trade near resistance level.

SPX @ 2.775,60 (Divestment mode)
Bullish trend trade mode.
Trade mode start: 18-01-2019 (2.670,71).
Trade mode exit:.
Trade actual: Longs opened on 13-02-2019 (2.753,03).

UST @ 122,27 (Investment mode)
Bullish trend trade mode.
Trade mode start: 14-02-2019 (122,43).
Trade mode exit:.
Trade actual: No trade in current non-trending congestion zone (121,50-123,50).

XEU @ 112,92 (Divestment mode)
Bearish trend trade mode.
Trade mode start: 06-02-2019 (113,65).
Trade mode exit:.
Trade actual: No trade in current non-trending congestion zone (112-115).

Trade modes are determined on a daily closing basis.

For actual trading I use capped futures (limited downside risk) and options.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Saturday, February 2, 2019

Dashboard Monthlies (closing last business day previous month)

Monthly Time Frame Investing

AEX @ 523,24 (AEX Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 30-09-2018.

BRENT @ 62,75 (BRENT Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 30-11-2018.

CRB @ 180,55 (CRB Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 31-07-2018.

GOLD @ 1.322,10 (GOLD Monthly Chart).
Investment mode since 31-01-2019.

REIT @ 362,04 (REIT Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 31-12-2018.

SOYB @ 917,75 (SOYB Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 30-06-2018.

SPX @ 2.706,53 (SPX Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode 31-12-2018.

UST @ 122,19 (UST Monthly Chart).
Investment mode since 31-01-2019.

XEU @ 114,50 (XEU Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 31-05-2018.

Investment and divestment modes are determined on a monthly closing basis.

Investment means going long as of mentioned date, divestment means selling these longs as of mentioned date. Shorting is, in the investment context, not considered.

Investment in stocks means buying cyclical values, divestment in stocks means selling cyclical values or exchanging them for defensive plays. Shorting stocks is, in the investment context, not considered.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.