Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Dashboard Dailies (closing previous business day)

Daily Time Frame Trading

AEX @ 552,65 (Divestment mode)
Bullish trend trade mode.
Trade mode start: 14-03-2019 (544,19).
Trade mode exit:.
Trade actual: Longs opened on 14-03-2019.

BRENT @ 67,61 (Divestment mode)
Bullish trend trade mode.
Trade mode start: 06-03-2019 (65,99).
Trade mode exit:.
Trade actual: No trend trade in congestion zone (64,50-67,75).

GOLD @ 1.306,50 (Investment mode)
No trend trade mode.
Trade mode start: 04-03-2019 (1.287,50).
Trade mode exit: 13-03-2019 (1.309,30) (trend trade mode window loss).
Trade actual: Shorts closed on 13-03-2019 @ a loss.

SOYB @ 904 (Investment mode)
No trend trade mode.
Trade mode start: 06-03-2019 (902).
Trade mode exit: 15-03-2019 (909,25) (trend trade mode window loss).
Trade actual: No trend trade in congestion zone (890-930).

SPX @ 2.832,57 (Divestment mode)
Bullish trend trade mode.
Trade mode start: 11-03-2019 (2.783,30).
Trade mode exit:.
Trade actual: Longs opened on 18-03-2019 @ 2.832,94.

UST @ 122,85 (Investment mode)
Bullish trend trade mode.
Trade mode start: 12-03-2019 (122,95).
Trade mode exit:.
Trade actual: No trend trade in congestion zone (121,50-123,50).

XEU @ 113,52 (Divestment mode)
No trend trade mode.
Trade mode start: 05-03-2019 (113,06).
Trade mode exit: 12-03-2019 (112,88) (trend trade mode window profit).
Trade actual: No trend trade in congestion zone (112-115).

Trade modes are determined on a daily closing basis.

For actual trading I use capped futures (limited downside risk) and options.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Sunday, March 17, 2019

AEX Elliott Wave Musings Update

This update should be read in conjunction with AEX Elliott Wave Musings which was revised on 10 March, 2019.

It presents the tentative Elliott Wave count as I imagine it.

Supercycle Wave 5 up - Cycle Wave 2 down - Primary Wave A down - Intermediate Wave B up. The hypothetical time horizon on the remainder of Cycle Wave 2 down is mid 2021. Ideally Primary Wave A down around mid 2019 targets approximately 430, Primary Wave B up around mid 2020 targets approximately 525 and Primary Wave C down around mid 2021 targets approximately 385.

Above mentioned count is in tatters above 576,90.

For a graphical display look at the AEX Monthly Charts (AEX Monthly Chart I and AEX Monthly Chart II).

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is only a human and therefore feeble attempt to create some order out of seemingly random market movements.

I don't trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Sunday, March 10, 2019

AEX Elliott Wave Musings

My current Elliott Wave count assumption is that we are in Supercycle Wave 5.

A Supercycle Wave 4 manifested itself during the 2000-2009 period.

Since then we have been in Cycle Wave 1 of Supercycle Wave 5.

Guesstimates as to where the Primary Waves of Cycle Wave 1 of Supercycle Wave 5 have ended are as follows, Primary Wave 1 in 2010, Primary Wave 2 in 2011, Primary Wave 3 in 2015, Primary Wave 4 in 2016 and Primary Wave 5 in 2018.

Cycle Wave 2 of Supercycle Wave 5 may have started. The hypothetical time horizon on the remainder of Cycle Wave 2 is mid 2021. Ideally Primary Wave A around mid 2019 targets approximately 430, Primary Wave B around mid 2020 targets approximately 525 and Primary Wave C around mid 2021 targets approximately 385.

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is only a human and therefore feeble attempt to create some order out of random market movements.

I don't trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Friday, March 1, 2019

Dashboard Monthlies (closing last business day previous month)

Monthly Time Frame Investing

AEX @ 541,05 (AEX Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 30-09-2018.

BRENT @ 66,31 (BRENT Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 30-11-2018.

CRB @ 182,75 (CRB Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 31-07-2018.

GOLD @ 1.316,10 (GOLD Monthly Chart).
Investment mode since 31-01-2019.

REIT @ 365,66 (REIT Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 31-12-2018.

SOYB @ 910,25 (SOYB Monthly Chart).
Investment mode since 28-02-2019.

SPX @ 2.784,49 (SPX Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode 31-12-2018.

UST @ 122,03 (UST Monthly Chart).
Investment mode since 31-01-2019.

XEU @ 113,71 (XEU Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 31-05-2018.

Investment and divestment modes are determined on a monthly closing basis.

Investment means going long as of mentioned date, divestment means selling these longs as of mentioned date. Shorting is, in the investment context, not considered.

Investment in stocks means buying cyclical values, divestment in stocks means selling cyclical values or exchanging them for defensive plays. Shorting stocks is, in the investment context, not considered.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.


Sunday, February 24, 2019

Dashboard Monthlies

The Dashboard Monthlies update will be published on Friday the 1st of March.