Saturday, November 17, 2018

Dashboard Monthlies

Monthly Time Frame Investing

AEX @ 522,43 (AEX Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 30-09-2018.

BRENT @ 67,32 (BRENT Monthly Chart).
Investment mode since 31-10-2017.

CRB @ 187,30 (CRB Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 31-07-2018.

GOLD @ 1.223 (GOLD Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 31-05-2018.

REIT @ 352,72 (REIT Monthly Chart).
Investment mode since 31-08-2018.

SOYB @ 892,25 (SOYB Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 30-06-2018.

SPX @ 2.736,27 (SPX Monthly Chart).
Investment mode 31-08-2018.

UST @ 119,21 (UST Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 30-09-2017.

XEU @ 115,05 (XEU Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 31-05-2018.

Investment and divestment modes are determined on a monthly closing basis.

Investment means going long, divestment means selling these longs. Shorts are, in the investment context, not considered.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.


Dashboard Dailies (daily closing basis)

Daily Time Frame Trading

AEX @ 522,43 (AEX Daily ChartAEX Weekly Chart).
No trend trade mode.
Trade mode entry date: 18-10-2018 (523,87).
Trade mode exit date: 31-10-2018 (518,71) (trend trade mode window profit).
Trade notes: Shorts close on 31-10-2018 @ profit.

BRENT @ 67,32 (Brent Daily Chart; BRENT Weekly Chart).
Bearish trend trade mode.
Trade mode entry date: 23-10-2018 (76,24).
Trade mode exit date:.
Trade notes: Shorts close on 06-11-2018 @ profit (reached support).

GOLD @ 1.223 (GOLD Daily Chart; GOLD Weekly Chart).
No trend trade mode.
Trade mode entry date: 01-11-2018 (1.238,60).
Trade mode exit date: 06-11-2018 (1.226,30) (trend trade mode window loss).
Trade notes: No trade. We are in support-resistance zone.

SOYB @ 892,25 (SOYB Daily Chart; SOYB Weekly Chart).
Bullish trend trade mode.
Trade mode entry date: 14-11-2018 (883,50).
Trade mode exit date:.
Trade notes: No trade. We are near resistance.

SPX @ 2.736,27 (SPX Daily Chart; SPX Weekly Chart).
Bearish trend trade mode.
Trade mode entry date: 14-11-2018 (2.701,58).
Trade mode exit date:.
Trade notes: Shorts open on 14-11-2018.

UST @ 119,21 (UST Daily Chart; UST Weekly Chart).
Bullish trend trade mode.
Trade mode entry date: 14-11-2018 (118,77).
Trade mode exit date:.
Trade notes: No trade. We are near resistance.

XEU @ 115,05 (XEU Daily Chart; XEU Weekly Chart).
No trend trade mode.
Trade mode entry date: 08-11-2018 (113,67).
Trade mode exit date: 16-11-2018 (115,05) (trend trade mode window loss).
Trade notes: Shorts close on 13-11-2018 @ profit (close above high of previous day).

Trend trade modes are determined on a daily closing basis.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Sunday, November 11, 2018

AEX Elliott Wave Musings Update

This update should be read in conjunction with AEX Elliott Wave Musings which was revised on 26 December, 2016.

It presents the tentative Elliott Wave count as I imagine it.

SuperCycle (V) up - Cycle II down - Primary A down -  Intermediate A down - Minor 4 up. The hypothetical time horizon on the remainder of Cycle II is mid 2021. Ideally Primary A around mid 2019 targets approximately 430, Primary B around mid 2020 targets approximately 525 and Primary C around mid 2021 targets approximately 385.

For a graphical display look at the AEX Monthly Charts (AEX Monthly Chart I and AEX Monthly Chart II).

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is only a human and therefore feeble attempt to create some order out of seemingly random market movements.

I don't trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.