Monday, February 12, 2018

Trends

AEX and SPX are in a longterm Bullish Trend Channel. Within this channel some form of correction is developing. Probably of the Intermediate Wave 4 (Elliott Wave Principle) level. The correction will continue but the low could already be in.

CRB and BRENT are in a longterm Bearish Wedge. Both are currently moving down to the wedge's lower boundery.

GOLD is in a longterm Bullish Ascending Triangle. Currently it is moving down to the triangle's lower boundery.

XEU is starting a longterm uptrend.
(The Euro becomes stronger and the US Dollar weaker)

UST is starting a longterm downtrend.
(US Bond prices move lower and corresponding yields higher)

REIT is in the process of starting a longterm downtrend.
(US Real Estate prices are forming a top).

I don't trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Principle which is explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

Trend Trade & Investment Principle (TTIP)

I have modified the above mentioned principle.

I wasn't happy with the Trend Channel and Bollinger Band as mechanisms to determine if I should make a trade or investment in a trend. Trend Channels are often difficult to draw and prices on a regular basis stay at or beyond the Bollinger Band levels. So I won't use these variables any more.

I will however pay more attention to the larger time frames, the patterns we find there and the corresponding levels of support and resistance to determine if a trade or investment in a trend makes sense.