Sunday, May 20, 2018

Dashboard Monthlies

Monthly Time Frame Trading & Investing

AEX @ 567,03 (AEX Monthly Chart I). TTIP mode.
Bullish trend direction. Trend investment setup valid.
Longer Term: Bullish Trend Channel (Target 650).
Support/Resistance: 505,92/572,81 and pattern bounderies.

BRENT @ 78,51 (BRENT Monthly Chart). TTIP mode.
Bullish trend direction. Trend investment setup valid.
Longer Term: Bullish Trend Channel (Target 115,71).
Support/Resistance: 61,76/115,71 and pattern bounderies.

COMMODITIES (CRB) @ 203,69 (CRB Monthly Chart). TTIP mode.
Bearish trend direction. Trend investment setup valid.
Longer Term: Bullish Ascending Triangle (Target 245).
Support/Resistance: 187,35/233,53 and pattern bounderies.

GOLD @ 1.291,30 (GOLD Monthly Chart). TTIP mode.
Bullish trend direction. Trend investment setup invalid.
Longer Term: Bullish Ascending Triangle (Target 1.700).
Support/Resistance: 1.238,30/1.377,50 and pattern bounderies.

REAL ESTATE (REIT) @ 327,52 (DJR Monthly Chart). TTIP mode.
Bearish trend direction. Trend investment setup valid.
Longer Term: Bearish Trend Channel.
Support/Resistance: 315,40/364,03 and pattern bounderies.

STOCKS (SPX) @ 2.712,97 (SPX Monthly Chart). TTIP mode.
Bullish trend direction. Trend investment setup valid.
Longer Term: Bullish Trend Channel.
Support/Resistance: 2.532,69/2.872,87 and pattern bounderies.

BONDS (UST) @ 118,70 (UST Monthly Chart). TTIP mode.
Bearish trend direction. Trend investment setup valid (yield implication is inverse).
Longer Term: Bearish Trend Channel.
Support/Resistance: n.a./127,62 and pattern bounderies.

EURO VS US DOLLAR (XEU) @ 117,83 (XEU Monthly Chart). TTIP mode.
Bullish trend direction. Trend investment setup invalid.
Longer Term: Bullish Trend Channel (Target 1,40).
Support/Resistance: 115,58/139,93 and pattern bounderies.

TTIP mode is determined on a monthly closing basis. Trend investment setup validness is determined on a weekly basis.

For Patterns and pattern bounderies look at the Monthly Charts.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Principle, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

AEX Elliott Wave Musings Update

This update should be read in conjunction with AEX Elliott Wave Musings which was revised on 26 December, 2016.

It presents the tentative Elliott Wave count as I imagine it.

SuperCycle (V) - Cycle I - Primary 5 - Intermediate 4 down. The hypothetical time horizon on the remainder of Primary 5 and thus Cycle I is Intermediate 4 down and 5 up (January 2018 - December 2020). Ideally Intermediate 4 down targets 515 or about and a potential targetzone on this projection for Intermediate 5 up and the whole of Cycle I might be 650-675.

For a graphical display look at the AEX Monthly Charts (AEX Monthly Chart I and AEX Monthly Chart II).

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is only a human and therefore feeble attempt to create some order out of seemingly random market movements.

I don't trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Principle which is explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Saturday, May 19, 2018

Dashboard Weeklies (based on the previous business day)

Weekly Time Frame Trading

AEX @ 567,03 (AEX Weekly Chart). TTIP mode.
Bullish trend direction. Trend investment setup valid.
Longer Term: Bullish Trend Channel (Target 650)
Shorter Term: Correction within channel
Support/Resistance: 516,58/572,81 and pattern bounderies.

BRENT @ 78,51 (BRENT Weekly Chart). TTIP mode.
Bullish trend direction. Trend investment setup valid.
Longer Term: Bullish Trend Channel (Target 115,71).
Shorter Term: Move up within channel.
Support/Resistance: 66,69/115,71 and pattern bounderies.

GOLD @ 1.291,30 (GOLD Weekly Chart). TTIP mode.
Bullish trend direction. Trend investment setup valid.
Longer Term: Bullish Ascending Triangle (Target 1.700).
Shorter Term: Move to upper boundery triangle.
Support/Resistance: 1.303,60/1.369,40 and pattern bounderies.

SOYB @ 998,50 (SOYB Weekly Chart). TTIP mode.
Bullish trend direction. Trend investment setup invalid.
Longer Term: Possible repeat of 2009-2010 Pattern (2016-2017) (Target 1.750).
Shorter Term: Awaiting possible breakout in this Pattern.
Support/Resistance: 967,75/1.080 and pattern bounderies.

SPX @ 2.712,97 (SPX Weekly Chart). TTIP mode.
Bullish trend direction. Trend investment setup invalid.
Longer Term: Bullish Trend Channel.
Shorter Term: Correction within channel.
Support/Resistance: 2.532,69/2872,87 and pattern bounderies.

UST @ 118,70 (UST Weekly Chart). TTIP mode.
Bearish trend direction. Trend investment setup valid.
Longer Term: Bearish Trend Channel.
Shorter Term: Move down within channel.
Support/Resistance: n.a./121,17 and pattern bounderies.

XEU @ 117,83 (XEU Weekly Chart). TTIP mode.
Bullish trend direction. Trend investment setup valid.
Longer Term: Bullish Trend Channel (Target 1,40).
Shorter Term: Correction within channel.
Support/Resistance: 117,17/125,37 and pattern bounderies.

TTIP mode and trend investment setup validness is determined on a weekly basis.

For Patterns and pattern bounderies look at the Monthly Charts. 

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Principle, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Dashboard Dailies (daily closing basis)

Daily Time Frame Trading

AEX @ 567,03 (AEX Daily Chart). TTIP mode.
Bullish trend direction. Trend trade setup valid.
Longer Term: Bullish Trend Channel ( Target 650).
Shorter Term: Correction within channel.
Trade Position: Long (small position).
Support/Resistance: 550,42/572,81 and pattern bounderies.

BRENT @ 78,51 (Brent Daily Chart). TTIP mode.
Bullish trend direction. Trend trade setup valid.
Longer Term: Bullish Trend Channel (Target 115,71).
Shorter Term: Move up within channel.
Trade Position: Long.
Support/Resistance: 73,10/115,71 and pattern bounderies.

GOLD @ 1.291,30 (GOLD Daily Chart). TTIP mode.
Bullish trend direction. Trend trade setup valid.
Longer Term: Bullish Ascending Triangle (Target 1.700).
Shorter Term: Move to lower boundery triangle.
Trade position: None.
Support/Resistance: 1.238,30/1.326,30 and pattern bounderies.

SOYB @ 998,50 (SOYB Daily Chart). TTIP mode.
Bullish trend direction. Trend trade setup valid.
Longer Term: Possible repeat of 2009-2010 Complex Pattern (2016-2017) (Target 1.750).
Shorter Term: Awaiting possible breakout in this pattern.
Trade Position: None.
Support/Resistance: 983,50/1.026 and pattern bounderies.

XEU @ 117,83 (XEU Daily Chart). TTIP mode.
Bullish trend direction. Trend trade setup valid.
Longer Term: Bullish Trend Channel (Target 1,40).
Shorter Term: Correction within channel.
Trade position: None.
Support/Resistance: 117,17/123,97 and pattern bounderies.

TTIP mode and Trend trade setup validness is determined on a daily basis.

For Longer Term Patterns and their bounderies look at the Monthly Charts.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Principle, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Saturday, February 24, 2018

Updates

There will be no updates from Saturday the 24th until Monday the 26th of February.

Good luck with trading and investing in the meantime. Be careful out there.

I will start posting again on Tuesday the 27th.

Monday, February 12, 2018

Trends

AEX and SPX are in a longterm Bullish Trend Channel. Within this channel some form of correction is developing. Probably of the Intermediate Wave 4 (Elliott Wave Principle) level. The correction will continue but the low could already be in.

CRB and BRENT are in a longterm Bearish Wedge. Both are currently moving down to the wedge's lower boundery.

GOLD is in a longterm Bullish Ascending Triangle. Currently it is moving down to the triangle's lower boundery.

XEU is starting a longterm uptrend.
(The Euro becomes stronger and the US Dollar weaker)

UST is starting a longterm downtrend.
(US Bond prices move lower and corresponding yields higher)

REIT is in the process of starting a longterm downtrend.
(US Real Estate prices are forming a top).

I don't trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Principle which is explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

Trend Trade & Investment Principle (TTIP)

I have modified the above mentioned principle.

I wasn't happy with the Trend Channel and Bollinger Band as mechanisms to determine if I should make a trade or investment in a trend. Trend Channels are often difficult to draw and prices on a regular basis stay at or beyond the Bollinger Band levels. So I won't use these variables any more.

I will however pay more attention to the larger time frames, the patterns we find there and the corresponding levels of support and resistance to determine if a trade or investment in a trend makes sense.