Sunday, July 22, 2018

Dashboard Monthlies

Monthly Time Frame Trading & Investing

AEX @ 572,20 (AEX Monthly Chart I).
TTIP modeTrend investment setup valid.
Longer Term: Bullish Trend Channel (Target 650).
Support/Resistance: 505,92/572,82 and pattern bounderies.

BRENT @ 73,02 (BRENT Monthly Chart).
TTIP mode.
Longer Term: Bullish Trend Channel (Target Resistance Level).
Support/Resistance: 61,76/115,71 and pattern bounderies.

COMMODITIES (CRB) @ 192,62 (CRB Monthly Chart).
TTIP modeTrend investment setup invalid.
Longer Term: Bullish Trend Channel (Target Resistance Level).
Support/Resistance: 187,35/233,53 and pattern bounderies.

GOLD @ 1.231,10 (GOLD Monthly Chart).
TTIP mode.
Longer Term: Bullish Ascending Triangle in jeopardy (Target Support Level).
Support/Resistance: 1.238,30/1.377,50 and pattern bounderies.

REAL ESTATE (REIT) @ 350,02 (DJR Monthly Chart).
TTIP modeTrend investment setup invalid.
Longer Term: Bearish Trend Channel (Target Resistance Level).
Support/Resistance: 311,38/364,03 and pattern bounderies.

STOCKS (SPX) @ 2.801,83 (SPX Monthly Chart).
TTIP modeTrend investment setup valid.
Longer Term: Bullish Trend Channel (Target Resistance Level).
Support/Resistance: 2.532,69/2.872,87 and pattern bounderies.

BONDS (UST) @ 120 (UST Monthly Chart).
TTIP mode.
Longer Term: Bearish Trend Channel (Target Support Level).
Support/Resistance: n.a./121,17 and pattern bounderies.

EURO VS US DOLLAR (XEU) @ 117,23 (XEU Monthly Chart).
TTIP modeTrend investment setup invalid.
Longer Term: Bearish Trend Channel (Target Support Level).
Support/Resistance: 115,58/139,93 and pattern bounderies.

TTIP mode is determined on a monthly closing basis. Trend investment setup validness is determined on a weekly basis.

For Patterns and pattern bounderies look at the Monthly Charts.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Principle, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

AEX Elliott Wave Musings Update

This update should be read in conjunction with AEX Elliott Wave Musings which was revised on 26 December, 2016.

It presents the tentative Elliott Wave count as I imagine it.

SuperCycle (V) - Cycle I - Primary 5 - Intermediate 4 down. The hypothetical time horizon on the remainder of Primary 5 and thus Cycle I is Intermediate 4 down and 5 up (January 2018 - December 2020). Ideally Intermediate 4 down targets 515 or about and a potential targetzone on this projection for Intermediate 5 up and the whole of Cycle I might be 650-675.

Only when we go above 572,90 we will get an indication that Intermediate 5 up might be in play.

For a graphical display look at the AEX Monthly Charts (AEX Monthly Chart I and AEX Monthly Chart II).

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is only a human and therefore feeble attempt to create some order out of seemingly random market movements.

I don't trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Principle which is explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Saturday, July 21, 2018

Dashboard Weeklies (based on the previous business day)

Weekly Time Frame Trading

AEX @ 572,20 (AEX Weekly Chart).
TTIP modeTrend investment setup valid.
Longer Term Pattern: Bullish Trend Channel (Target 650)
Shorter Term Observation: Correction within channel
Support/Resistance: 516,58/572,81 and pattern bounderies.

BRENT @ 73,02 (BRENT Weekly Chart).
TTIP modeTrend investment setup invalid.
Longer Term Pattern: Bullish Trend Channel (Target 115,71).
Shorter Term Observation: Move down within channel.
Support/Resistance: 72,38/115,71 and pattern bounderies.

GOLD @ 1.231,10 (GOLD Weekly Chart).
TTIP mode.
Longer Term Pattern: Bullish Ascending Triangle in jeopardy.
Shorter Term Observation: Move exceeding lower boundery triangle.
Support/Resistance: 1.238,30/1.313 and pattern bounderies.

SOYB @ 864,75 (SOYB Weekly Chart).
TTIP mode.
Longer Term Pattern: Bearish Flag (Target approx. 725).
Shorter Term Observation:  Breakdown out of this pattern.
Support/Resistance: 777/929 and pattern bounderies.

SPX @ 2.801,83 (SPX Weekly Chart).
TTIP modeTrend investment setup valid.
Longer Term: Bullish Trend Channel.
Shorter Term: Correction within channel.
Support/Resistance: 2.691,99/2872,87 and pattern bounderies.

UST @ 120 (UST Weekly Chart).
TTIP modeTrend investment setup invalid.
Longer Term: Bearish Trend Channel.
Shorter Term: Move down within channel.
Support/Resistance: n.a./121,17 and pattern bounderies.

XEU @ 117,23 (XEU Weekly Chart).
TTIP modeTrend investment setup invalid.
Longer Term Pattern: Bearish Trend Channel (Target approx. 1,05).
Shorter Term Observation: Bearish Flag within this pattern.
Support/Resistance: 115,58/124,63 and pattern bounderies.

TTIP mode and trend investment setup validness is determined on a weekly basis.

For Patterns and pattern bounderies look at the Monthly Charts. 

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Principle, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Dashboard Dailies (daily closing basis)

Daily Time Frame Trading

AEX @ 572,20 (AEX Daily Chart).
TTIP modeTrend trade setup valid.
Longer Term Pattern: Bullish Trend Channel ( Target approx. 650).
Shorter Term Observation: Correction within channel.
Trade Position: None (sold long at a profit).
Support/Resistance: 556,02/572,90 and pattern bounderies.

BRENT @ 73,02 (Brent Daily Chart).
TTIP mode.
Longer Term Pattern: Bullish Trend Channel (Target approx. 115,71).
Shorter Term Observation: Move down within channel.
Trade Position: Long (small position).
Support/Resistance: 70,83/75,93 and pattern bounderies.

GOLD @ 1.231,10 (GOLD Daily Chart).
TTIP modeTrend trade setup valid.
Longer Term Pattern: Bullish Ascending Triangle in jeopardy.
Shorter Term Observation: Move exceeding lower boundery triangle.
Trade position: None (sold short at a profit).
Support/Resistance: 1.204/1.266,90 and pattern bounderies.

SOYB @ 864,75 (SOYB Daily Chart).
TTIP modeTrend trade setup invalid.
Longer Term Pattern: Bearish Flag (Target approx. 725).
Shorter Term Observation:  Breakdown out of this pattern.
Trade Position: Short (small position).
Support/Resistance: 777/897,75 and pattern bounderies.

XEU @ 117,23 (XEU Daily Chart).
TTIP modeTrend trade setup invalid.
Longer Term Pattern: Bearish Trend Channel (Target approx. 1,05).
Shorter Term Observation: Bearish Flag within this pattern.
Trade position: Short (small position).
Support/Resistance: 115,19/118,41 and pattern bounderies.

TTIP mode and Trend trade setup validness is determined on a daily basis.

For Longer Term Patterns and their bounderies look at the Monthly Charts.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Principle, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Saturday, June 30, 2018

Updates

There will be no updates on Saturday the 30th of June.

Monday, February 12, 2018

Trends

AEX and SPX are in a longterm Bullish Trend Channel. Within this channel some form of correction is developing. Probably of the Intermediate Wave 4 (Elliott Wave Principle) level. The correction will continue but the low could already be in.

CRB and BRENT are in a longterm Bearish Wedge. Both are currently moving down to the wedge's lower boundery.

GOLD is in a longterm Bullish Ascending Triangle. Currently it is moving down to the triangle's lower boundery.

XEU is starting a longterm uptrend.
(The Euro becomes stronger and the US Dollar weaker)

UST is starting a longterm downtrend.
(US Bond prices move lower and corresponding yields higher)

REIT is in the process of starting a longterm downtrend.
(US Real Estate prices are forming a top).

I don't trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Principle which is explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

Trend Trade & Investment Principle (TTIP)

I have modified the above mentioned principle.

I wasn't happy with the Trend Channel and Bollinger Band as mechanisms to determine if I should make a trade or investment in a trend. Trend Channels are often difficult to draw and prices on a regular basis stay at or beyond the Bollinger Band levels. So I won't use these variables any more.

I will however pay more attention to the larger time frames, the patterns we find there and the corresponding levels of support and resistance to determine if a trade or investment in a trend makes sense.