Saturday, November 17, 2018

Dashboard Monthlies

Monthly Time Frame Investing

AEX @ 522,43 (AEX Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 30-09-2018.

BRENT @ 67,32 (BRENT Monthly Chart).
Investment mode since 31-10-2017.

CRB @ 187,30 (CRB Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 31-07-2018.

GOLD @ 1.223 (GOLD Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 31-05-2018.

REIT @ 352,72 (REIT Monthly Chart).
Investment mode since 31-08-2018.

SOYB @ 892,25 (SOYB Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 30-06-2018.

SPX @ 2.736,27 (SPX Monthly Chart).
Investment mode 31-08-2018.

UST @ 119,21 (UST Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 30-09-2017.

XEU @ 115,05 (XEU Monthly Chart).
Divestment mode since 31-05-2018.

Investment and divestment modes are determined on a monthly closing basis.

Investment means going long, divestment means selling these longs. Shorts are, in the investment context, not considered.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.


Dashboard Dailies (daily closing basis)

Daily Time Frame Trading

AEX @ 522,43 (AEX Daily ChartAEX Weekly Chart).
No trend trade mode.
Trade mode entry date: 18-10-2018 (523,87).
Trade mode exit date: 31-10-2018 (518,71) (trend trade mode window profit).
Trade notes: Shorts close on 31-10-2018 @ profit.

BRENT @ 67,32 (Brent Daily Chart; BRENT Weekly Chart).
Bearish trend trade mode.
Trade mode entry date: 23-10-2018 (76,24).
Trade mode exit date:.
Trade notes: Shorts close on 06-11-2018 @ profit (reached support).

GOLD @ 1.223 (GOLD Daily Chart; GOLD Weekly Chart).
No trend trade mode.
Trade mode entry date: 01-11-2018 (1.238,60).
Trade mode exit date: 06-11-2018 (1.226,30) (trend trade mode window loss).
Trade notes: No trade. We are in support-resistance zone.

SOYB @ 892,25 (SOYB Daily Chart; SOYB Weekly Chart).
Bullish trend trade mode.
Trade mode entry date: 14-11-2018 (883,50).
Trade mode exit date:.
Trade notes: No trade. We are near resistance.

SPX @ 2.736,27 (SPX Daily Chart; SPX Weekly Chart).
Bearish trend trade mode.
Trade mode entry date: 14-11-2018 (2.701,58).
Trade mode exit date:.
Trade notes: Shorts open on 14-11-2018.

UST @ 119,21 (UST Daily Chart; UST Weekly Chart).
Bullish trend trade mode.
Trade mode entry date: 14-11-2018 (118,77).
Trade mode exit date:.
Trade notes: No trade. We are near resistance.

XEU @ 115,05 (XEU Daily Chart; XEU Weekly Chart).
No trend trade mode.
Trade mode entry date: 08-11-2018 (113,67).
Trade mode exit date: 16-11-2018 (115,05) (trend trade mode window loss).
Trade notes: Shorts close on 13-11-2018 @ profit (close above high of previous day).

Trend trade modes are determined on a daily closing basis.

For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Sunday, November 11, 2018

AEX Elliott Wave Musings Update

This update should be read in conjunction with AEX Elliott Wave Musings which was revised on 26 December, 2016.

It presents the tentative Elliott Wave count as I imagine it.

SuperCycle (V) up - Cycle II down - Primary A down -  Intermediate A down - Minor 4 up. The hypothetical time horizon on the remainder of Cycle II is mid 2021. Ideally Primary A around mid 2019 targets approximately 430, Primary B around mid 2020 targets approximately 525 and Primary C around mid 2021 targets approximately 385.

For a graphical display look at the AEX Monthly Charts (AEX Monthly Chart I and AEX Monthly Chart II).

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is only a human and therefore feeble attempt to create some order out of seemingly random market movements.

I don't trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies which are explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

Thursday, October 11, 2018

Update AEX

Just a heads up.

Closed AEX short position from yesterday at 518,70.

We were close to the 515-517 support area.

Normally I don't give intraday information but in volatile market circumstances I may make an exception to this rule.

Please also read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Trade Mode Entry and Exit

Trend trade modes and its entry and exit dates are determined by the Trend Trade and Investment Strategies. For an explanation of the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies, its abbreviations and its usage see the bottom of this blog.

The way I go about these modes and dates is as follows.

If a trade mode entry occurs at a certain date I might consider a trade on that date unless support and resistance levels or support and resistance congestion areas make that un unwise decision. If the latter is the case I wait a little and if at a later date the existing trade mode is still valid and these levels are broken or areas are vacated in the envisioned way I might still consider the trade.

If I choose to make a trade I will then start to review the progress of the trade.

In the progress of the trade the following might happen.

1) The market goes against me. Then I terminate the trade at a loss at the trade mode exit date.
2) The market goes my way. Then I could early terminate the trade at a profit when a close is made below/above the low/high of the previous day or at an important resistance/support level (for longs/for shorts respectively).
3) The market goes my way. If I haven't early terminated the trade before I will do so at a profit at the trade mode exit date.

The time that passes between the trade mode entry and exit date is the trade mode window. If I choose to enter a trade I do so on the trade mode entry date or a little later (due to support and resistance level or area issues). I consider exiting during the whole trade mode window but I never stay in the trade beyond the trade mode exit date.

Please read the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Tuesday, August 28, 2018

How and with what I trade and invest?

I trade and invest of course according to the Trade & Investment Strategies.

The instruments I use are capped futures (limited downside risk), options and direct investments.

Futures and options, i.e. leveraged financial products, are mainly used for all trading purposes and for investing in bonds, commodities, currencies and indexes. At any one time I never invest more than 5% of my available free capital in these leveraged instruments. For investing in particular stocks I buy or sell the underlying securities directly.

Trading futures and options involves the risk of considerable loss. Please consider carefully wether these instruments are appropriate to your financial situation.  Only risk capital that you can afford to lose when using these trading and investment vehicles.

For an explanation of the abbreviations and the Trend Trade & Investment Strategies see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.