New Year

I wish you all a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous 2011.

Update

MTFM-B, WTFM-BOB and DTF-BOB/BR. The WTFM is bullish and overbought and the DTF is in bearish reversal. The conditions for a bearish trend trade setup are met. The actual trigger for the trade is a breach of the last low of 353,10.

The Slow Stochastic in the DTF is below 90. No new stochastic trade setup has arisen.

Cycle and pattern recognition analysis. Monday to Thursday up, Friday down.

Cycle analysis. As of the 22nd of December the cycle has turned down.

For an explanation of the abbreviations see the Trade Principles at the bottom of this blog.

Close Stochastic Trade # 9

Sold all of my AEX Turbo Shorts 370 this afternoon just below the AEX 355,90 level more or less in accordance with todays stochastic trade setup. Made a profit of 4% (1 business day).

Open Stochastic Trade # 9

Bought AEX Turbo Shorts 370 (Stoploss 358,24) this morning just below the AEX 357,33 level in accordance with todays stochastic trade setup.

Update

MTFM-B, WTFM-BOB and DTF-BOB/BR. The WTFM is bullish and overbought and the DTF is in bearish reversal. I will ignore the arisen trend trade setup since it is of the high risk, preemptive and speculative variety.

The Slow Stochastic in the DTF is above 90. A new stochastic trade setup has arisen. See my Stochastic Trade Setup 30-12-2010 post.

Cycle and pattern recognition analysis. Monday to Thursday up, Friday down.

Cycle analysis. As of the 22nd of December the cycle has turned down.

For an explanation of the abbreviations see the Trade Principles at the bottom of this blog.

Stochastic Trade Setup 30-12-2010

I will buy shorts as soon as the AEX goes below 357,33.

If, after the purchase, the market goes down:

I will sell, at a profit, half the shorts at the AEX 356,77 level and the other half at the AEX 356,42 level.

I will put my stoploss at the AEX 358,24 level. This means that if the AEX moves above 358,24, and I still have a position, whole or half, I will sell it at a loss immediately. The stoploss is there to limit my loss and preserve my capital in order to be able to trade another day.

This specific setup proposal is only valid for the above mentioned date.

Update

MTFM-B, WTFM-BOB and DTF-BOB/BR. The WTFM is bullish and overbought and the DTF is in bearish reversal. We will consider a new trend trade setup as of the close of today.

The Slow Stochastic in the DTF is above 90. We will consider a new stochastic trade setup as of the close of today.

Cycle and pattern recognition analysis. Monday to Thursday up, Friday down.

Cycle analysis. As of the 22nd of December the cycle has turned down.

For an explanation of the abbreviations see the Trade Principles at the bottom of this blog.

Open & Close Stochastic Trade # 8

During my holiday the Stochastic Trade Setup Rollover 22-12-2010 transferred into the Stochastic Trade Setup Rollover 23-12-2010 which transferred into the Stochastic Trade Setup Rollover 24-12-2010 as shown below.

"I will buy shorts as soon as the AEX goes below 355,33.

If, after the purchase, the market goes down:

I will sell, at a profit, half the shorts at the AEX 354,66 level and the other half at the AEX 354,24 level.

I will put my stoploss at the AEX 356,42 level. This means that if the AEX moves above 356,42, and I still have a position, whole or half, I will sell it at a loss immediately. The stoploss is there to limit my loss and preserve my capital in order to be able to trade another day."

The setup opened Stochastic Trade # 8 on 24-12-2010 and closed it at a profit of 5% (2 business days) again on 27-12-2010.

Stochastic Trade Setup Rollover 22-12-2010

I will buy shorts as soon as the AEX goes below 354,97.

If, after the purchase, the market goes down:

I will sell, at a profit, half the shorts at the AEX 354,24 level and the other half at the AEX 353,80 level.

I will put my stoploss at the AEX 356,14 level. This means that if the AEX moves above 356,14, and I still have a position, whole or half, I will sell it at a loss immediately. The stoploss is there to limit my loss and preserve my capital in order to be able to trade another day.

This specific setup proposal is only valid for today.

Update

MTFM-B, WTFM-BOB and DTF-BOB/BR. The WTFM is bullish and overbought and the DTF is in bearish reversal. Since the bearish reversal has almost reversed I'm not going to present a new trend trade setup.

The Slow Stochastic in the DTF is above 90. The Stochastic Trade Setup Rollover 21-12-2010 has transferred into the Stochastic Trade Setup Rollover 22-12-2010.

Cycle and pattern recognition analysis. Monday and Tuesday flat. The rest of the week down.

Cycle analysis. Around the 22nd of December the cycle is expected to turn down.

For an explanation of the abbreviations see the Trade Principles at the bottom of this blog.

Stochastic Trade Setup Rollover 21-12-2010

I will buy shorts as soon as the AEX goes below 351,97.

If, after the purchase, the market goes down:

I will sell, at a profit, half the shorts at the AEX 350,62 level and the other half at the AEX 349,78 level.

I will put my stoploss at the AEX 354,16 level. This means that if the AEX moves above 354,16, and I still have a position, whole or half, I will sell it at a loss immediately. The stoploss is there to limit my loss and preserve my capital in order to be able to trade another day.

This specific setup proposal is only valid for today.

When and what I buy based on this setup will be posted on this blog as well.

Update

MTFM-B, WTFM-BOB and DTF-BOB/BR. The WTFM is bullish and overbought and the DTF is in bearish reversal. Since the bearish reversal has almost reversed I'm not going to present a new trend trade setup.

The Slow Stochastic in the DTF is above 90. The Stochastic Trade Setup 20-12-2010 has transferred into the Stochastic Trade Setup Rollover 21-12-2010.

Cycle and pattern recognition analysis. Monday and Tuesday flat. The rest of the week down.

Cycle analysis. Around the 22nd of December the cycle is expected to turn down.

For an explanation of the abbreviations see the Trade Principles at the bottom of this blog.

Holiday

I will be on holiday from Wednesday 22 December until Tuesday 28 December.

There will be no updates during this period.

Merry Christmas to you all.

Update

MTFM-B, WTFM-BOB and DTF-BOB/BR. The WTFM is bullish and overbought and the DTF is in bearish reversal. Since the bearish reversal has almost reversed I'm not going to present a new trend trade setup.

The Slow Stochastic in the DTF is above 90. Since we made a new high a new stochastic trade setup has presented itself. See my Stochastic Trade Setup 20-12-2010.

Cycle and pattern recognition analysis. Monday and Tuesday flat. The rest of the week down.
Cycle analysis. Around the 22nd of December the cycle is expected to turn down.

For an explanation of the abbreviations see the Trade Principles at the bottom of this blog.

Stochastic Trade Setup 20-12-2010

I will buy shorts as soon as the AEX goes below 351,22.

If, after the purchase, the market goes down:

I will sell, at a profit, half the shorts at the AEX 350,43 level and the other half at the AEX 349,95 level.

I will put my stoploss at the AEX 352,49 level. This means that if the AEX moves above 352,49, and I still have a position, whole or half, I will sell it at a loss immediately. The stoploss is there to limit my loss and preserve my capital in order to be able to trade another day.

This specific setup proposal is only valid for today.

When and what I buy based on this setup will be posted on this blog as well.

Close Trend Trade # 7

Sold my AEX Turbo Shorts 358 this morning just above the AEX 358,80 level in accordance with Wednesday's trend trade setup. Made a loss of 15% (3 business days).

Update

The WTFM is bullish and overbought and the DTF has shown a bearish reversal. As a consequence a trend trade (# 7) is in play. Above 352,80 this trade will be stopped out with a loss.

The Slow Stochastic in the DTF is above 90. New stochastic trade setups will only be considered above 352,80.

The rest of the week has a positive bias. This forecast is based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis.

For an explanation of the abbreviations see the Trade Principles at the bottom of this blog.

Update

The WTFM is bullish and overbought and the DTF has shown a bearish reversal. As a consequence a trend trade (# 7) is in play. See my separate post on the subject. Within the trend trade principles it is however the weakest of signals. So be careful.

The Slow Stochastic in the DTF was recently above 90. The stochastic trade (# 6) that was in play has been closed with a profit. See my separate posts on this subject.

The rest of the week has a positive bias. This forecast is based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis. 

For an explanation of the abbreviations see the Trade Principles at the bottom of this blog.

Notice

Since the inception of Stoch Trader in September 2010 the success rate on trades has been more than satisfactory.

The Stoch Trader Trade Principles, to be found at the bottom of the blog, are designed to generate high probability trade strategies. These strategies are also geared towards maximizing profit and minimizing loss.

This does not mean that all individual trades in the future will be profitable. The majority of them however should be.

By the way. As trade vehicles I only use AEX Turbo Longs and Shorts from RBS (See My Links List). The investment amount per trade is always the same.

If you are happy with the trade suggestions and they work for you please consider a donation by using the donate button on this blog.

Open Trend Trade # 7

Bought AEX Turbo Shorts 359 (Stoploss 352,80) this morning just below the AEX 350,03 level in accordance with todays trend trade setup.

Final Close Stochastic Trade # 6

Sold final half of my AEX Turbo Shorts 359 this morning just below the AEX 349,87 level in accordance with yesterdays stochastic trade setup. Made a profit of 6% (2 business days).

Trend Trade Setup 15-12-2010

I will buy shorts as soon as the AEX goes below 350,03.

I will put my stoploss at the AEX 351,98 level. This means that if the AEX moves above 351,98 I will sell my position at a loss immediately. The stoploss is there to limit my loss and preserve my capital in order to be able to trade another day.

This specific setup proposal is only valid for today.

When and what I buy based on this setup will be posted on this blog as well.

Update

The WTFM is bullish and overbought and the DTF has shown a bearish reversal. This means a trend trade setup has been established. See my separate post on the subject. Within the trend trade principles it is the weakest of signals however. So be careful.

The Slow Stochastic in the DTF was recently above 90. A stochastic trade is in play. See my separate posts on this subject.

The rest of the week has a positive bias. This forecast is based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis. 

For an explanation of the abbreviations see the Trade Principles at the bottom of this blog.

Partial Close Stochastic Trade # 6

Sold half of my AEX Turbo Shorts 359 this morning just below the AEX 350,30 level in accordance with yesterdays stochastic trade setup. Made a profit of 5% (1 business day).

Open Stochastic Trade # 6

Bought AEX Turbo Shorts 359 (Stoploss 352,11) this morning just below the AEX 350,99 level in accordance with yesterdays stochastic trade setup.

Update

The WTFM is bullish and overbought but the DTF has not shown a bearish reversal yet. This means no new trend trade setup.

The Slow Stochastic in the DTF was recently above 90. This means there is currently a stochastic trade setup rollover in play. See my separate post on this subject.

Tuesday should be lower to flat. The rest of the week has a positive bias. This forecast is based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis. For the "desperate to trade" crowd the best bet is to go long on Tuesday and sell your position again on Friday.

For an explanation of the abbreviations see the Trade Principles at the bottom of this blog.

Stochastic Trade Setup Rollover 14-12-2010

I will buy shorts as soon as the AEX goes below 350,99.

If, after the purchase, the market goes down:

I will sell, at a profit, half the shorts at the AEX 350,30 level and the other half at the AEX 349,87 level.

I will put my stoploss at the AEX 352,11 level. This means that if the AEX moves above 352,11, and I still have a position, whole or half, I will sell it at a loss immediately. The stoploss is there to limit my loss and preserve my capital in order to be able to trade another day.

This specific setup proposal is only valid for Tuesday.

When and what I buy based on this setup will be posted on this blog as well.

Update

The WTFM is bullish and overbought but the DTF has not shown a bearish reversal yet. This means no new trend trade setup.

The Slow Stochastic in the DTF was above 90. This means there is currently a stochastic trade setup rollover in play. See my separate post on this subject.

Monday and Tuesday should be lower to flat. The rest of the week has a positive bias. This forecast is based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis. For the "desperate to trade" crowd the best bet is to go long on Tuesday and sell your position again on Friday.

For an explanation of the abbreviations see the Trade Principles at the bottom of this blog.

Stochastic Trade Setup Rollover 13-12-2010

I will buy shorts as soon as the AEX goes below 349,30.

If, after the purchase, the market goes down:

I will sell, at a profit, half the shorts at the AEX 348,70 level and the other half at the AEX 348,34 level.

I will put my stoploss at the AEX 350,26 level. This means that if the AEX moves above 350,26, and I still have a position, whole or half, I will sell it at a loss immediately. The stoploss is there to limit my loss and preserve my capital in order to be able to trade another day.

This specific setup proposal is only valid for Monday.

When and what I buy based on this setup will be posted on this blog as well.

Update

The WTFM is bullish and overbought but the DTF has not shown a bearish reversal yet. This means no trend trade setup.

The Slow Stochastic in the DTF is above 90. This means there is a stochastic trade setup. See my separate post on this subject.

The rest of the week we should generally be heading down. This forecast is based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis. So far this seems not to be working out.

For an explanation of the abbreviations see the Trade Principles at the bottom of this blog.

Stochastic Trade Setup 10-12-2010

I will buy shorts as soon as the AEX goes below 348,28.

If, after the purchase, the market goes down:

I will sell, at a profit, half the shorts at the AEX 347,55 level and the other half at the AEX 347,11 level.

I will put my stoploss at the AEX 349,45 level. This means that if the AEX moves above 349,45, and I still have a position, whole or half, I will sell it at a loss immediately. The stoploss is there to limit my loss and preserve my capital in order to be able to trade another day.

This specific setup proposal is only valid for tomorrow.

When and what I buy based on this setup will be posted on this blog as well.

Update

The WTFM is bullish and overbought but the DTF has not shown a bearish reversal yet. This means no trend trade setup.

The Slow Stochastic in the DTF is just below 90 and above 10 and shows no divergence. This means no stochastic trade setup.

The rest of the week we should generally be heading down. This forecast is based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis.

For an explanation of the abbreviations see the Trade Principles at the bottom of this blog.

Update

The WTFM is bullish and overbought but the DTF has not shown a bearish reversal yet. This means no trend trade setup.

The Slow Stochastic in the DTF is below 90 and above 10 and shows no divergence. This means no stochastic trade setup.

The rest of the week we should generally be heading down. This forecast is based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis.

For an explanation of the abbreviations see the Trade Principles at the bottom of this blog.

Trading Principles

I recently tinkered with the principles for trend trades. The purpose of the exercise was to create more trade signals in a mechanical way without introducing too much additional risk. Let's wait and see if it works.

Update

I'm expecting the AEX to be sligthly higher today. For the rest of the week we should be sliding downwards. These forecasts are based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis.

Trading

All my specific trade proposals will adhere to the trade principles mentioned at the bottom of the blog.

The "desperate to trade" remarks at the beginning of each week are for those that feel the need to be in the market all the time. These suggestions are more speculative of nature and are based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis.

Update

I'm expecting the AEX to be flat to sligthly lower today. Tomorrow we might see one more pop higher before we start sliding the rest of the week. These forecasts are based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis.

Update

The Short Term Trend moved from down to corrective again.

I have a strong feeling this coming week will have a negative bias. Such negativity could be displayed by Elliott Wave Minor Wave 4 Minute Wave c down or by Elliott Wave Minor Wave 5 Minute Wave ii down. Below 335 the likelyhood of the Minor Wave 4 scenario heavily increases. From mid December onwards I expect the AEX to perform relatively well.

End of week 49 target 335. Monday and Tuesday the AEX is likely to go slightly higher. The rest of the week looks weak. These forecasts are based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis. If you are desperate to trade this week buy shorts on Tuesday and sell them again on Friday.

Update

Yesterday we went higher than the last high. This means the Short Term Trend moves from down to corrective again.

The following Elliott Wave Minor Wave 4 scenario could be unfolding. Minute Wave a down completed last Tuesday, Minute Wave b up is expected to last into the first week of December and Minute Wave c should finish it off with a sharp decline into mid December. If we move above 348,82 however it is more likely Elliott Wave Minor Wave 5 has started.

End of week 48 target 340. Monday and Tuesday the AEX is likely to go lower. The rest of the week looks rosier. These forecasts are based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis. If you are desperate to trade this week buy Tuesday and sell Friday.