Update

We just made the second lower low. The Short Term Trend is now down. Let's see if the rest of the proposed scenario will play out.

Update

Did we make a second lower high Friday? I think we did, but as soon as we move decisively below 332,68 we will know for sure the Short Term Trend turned from corrective to down.

If we do, the following Elliott Wave Minor Wave 4 scenario could be unfolding. Minute Wave a down completes Monday or Tuesday, to be followed by Minute Wave b up into the first week of December and Minute Wave c finishes it of with a sharp decline into mid December.

Hopefully Minute Wave a and c will provide us with some stochastic trade setups. These have unfortunately been few and far between recently.

End of week 48 target 340. Monday and Tuesday the AEX is likely to go lower. The rest of the week looks rosier. These forecasts are based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis. If you are desperate to trade this week buy Tuesday and sell Friday.

Update

Did we make a second lower high yesterday? I think we did, but as soon as we move decisively below 332,68 we will know for sure the Short Term Trend turned from corrective to down.

If we do, the following Elliott Wave Minor Wave 4 scenario could be unfolding. Minute Wave a down completes Monday or Tuesday, to be followed by Minute Wave b up into the first week of December and Minute Wave c finishes it of with a sharp decline into mid December.

Hopefully Minute Wave a and c will provide us with some stochastic trade setups. These have unfortunately been few and far between recently.

Update

I expect today and Monday to be weak. The rest of next week should be stronger.

After next week a sharp drop into mid December is a distinct possibility.

From mid December until the first quarter of 2011 most likely smooth sailing weather for the AEX, i.e. retouching the last high area (350-355) or even moving to a marginally new high.

Update

Short Term Trend stays in a correction mode as long as we stay between 332,68 (second lower low) and 347,40 (first lower high).

If we rise above 347,40 Minor Wave 5 has started else we remain in Minor Wave 4. For a complete Elliott Wave count see my previous post.

I expect Minor Wave 4 to last until mid December. Negative divergence on the RSI, MACD and Slow Stochastic, and downward break of a bearish upward sloping wedge make this in my view the more likely outcome.

Update

Short Term Trend is in a corrective mode. We have one lower high and two lower lows. A new downtrend will be established when we have a second lower high below 347,40. There is a distinct possibility such a high could arise around the 339-340 area.

We are probably in an Elliott Wave Minute c - Minor 4 - Intermediate 1 - Primary 3 or C.

Slow Stochastic is below 20. A stochastic setup is near.

End of week 47 target 345. Monday the AEX is likely to go lower, while climbing the rest of the week. These forecasts are based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis. If you are desperate to trade this week buy Tuesday and sell Friday.

Update

Short Term Trend is in a corrective mode. We have one lower high and two lower lows.

We are probably in an Elliott Wave Minute c - Minor 4 (triangle fashion) - Intermediate 1 - Primary 3 or C.

Slow Stochastic is below 50. No stochastic setup available.

End of week 47 target 345. Monday the AEX is likely to go lower, while climbing the rest of the week. These forecasts are based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis. If you are desperate to trade this week buy Tuesday and sell Friday.

Update

Short Term Trend is in a corrective mode.

We are probably in an Elliott Wave Minute b-B - Minor 4 (triangle fashion) - Intermediate 1 - Primary 3 or C.

Slow Stochastic is in neutral territory. The reason there are so few stochastic setups recently is that the AEX since mid September is moving correctively, as opposed to motively, in a narrow range (330 - 350).

End of week 47 target 345. Monday the AEX is likely to go lower, while climbing the rest of the week. These forecasts are based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis. If you are desperate to trade this week buy Tuesday and sell Friday.

Update

Short Term Trend is in a corrective mode because we have a lower high at 346,23.

We are probably in an Elliott Wave Minute b - Minor 4 - Intermediate 1 - Primary 3 or C.

Slow Stochastic has arrived at the 50 level. The reason there are so few stochastic setups recently is that the AEX since mid September is moving correctively, as opposed to motively, in a narrow range (330 - 350).

End of week 46 target 347. Monday to Wednesday the AEX is likely to be flattish, Thursday is projected to be up and Friday is probably going to be down. For the next couple of weeks I tend to be bearish. These forecasts are based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis.

Update

Short Term Trend is in a corrective mode because we have a lower high.

We are probably in an Elliott Wave Minute a(-c) - Minor 4 - Intermediate 1 - Primary 3 or C.

Slow Stochastic has moved below 80. There is no stochastic trade setup.

End of week 46 target 347. Monday to Wednesday the AEX is likely to be flattish, Thursday is projected to be up and Friday is probably going to be down. For the next couple of weeks I tend to be bearish. These forecasts are based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis.

Update

Short Term Trend is still up as long as we don't move below the last low at 335,33.

We are probably in an Elliott Wave Minute b - Minor 4 - Intermediate 1 - Primary 3 or C.

Slow Stochastic has moved below 80. There is no stochastic trade setup.

End of week 46 target 347. Monday to Wednesday the AEX is likely to be flattish, Thursday is projected to be up and Friday is probably going to be down. For the next couple of weeks I tend to be bearish. These forecasts are based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis.

Update

Short Term Trend is still up as long as we don't move below the last low at 335,33.

We are probably in an Elliott Wave Minute a - Minor 4 - Intermediate 1 - Primary 3 or C.

Slow Stochastic has moved below 80. There is no stochastic trade setup.

End of week 45 target 345. Monday to Thursday the AEX is likely to move up to 350. Friday would probably be a down day. These forecasts are based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis.

Final Close Stochastic Trade # 4

Sold final half of my AEX Turbo Shorts 351 this afternoon just below the AEX 344,27 level in accordance with yesterdays stochastic trade setup. Made a profit of 12% (2 business days).

Partial Close Stochastic Trade # 4

Sold half of my AEX Turbo Shorts 351 this afternoon just below the AEX 344,94 level in accordance with yesterdays stochastic trade setup. Made a profit of 8% (2 business days).

Open Stochastic Trade # 4

Bought AEX Turbo Shorts 351 (Stoploss 347,75) this afternoon just below the AEX 346,01 level in accordance with todays stochastic trade setup.

Stochastic Trade Setup Rollover 10-11-2010

Parameters have changed since 09-11-2010.

I will buy shorts as soon as the AEX goes below 346,01.

If, after the purchase, the market goes down:

I will sell, at a profit, half the shorts at the AEX 344,94 level and the other half at the AEX 344,27 level.

I will put my stoploss at the AEX 347,75 level. This means that if the AEX moves above 347,75, and I still have a position, whole or half, I will sell it at a loss immediately. The stoploss is there to limit my loss and preserve my capital in order to be able to trade another day.

This specific setup proposal is only valid for Wednesday.

When and what I buy based on this setup will be posted on the blog as well.

Stochastic Trade Setup Rollover 09-11-2010

Parameters have not changed since 08-11-2010.

I will buy shorts as soon as the AEX goes below 345,09.

If, after the purchase, the market goes down:

I will sell, at a profit, half the shorts at the AEX 343,81 level and the other half at the AEX 343,03 level.

I will put my stoploss at the AEX 347,15 level. This means that if the AEX moves above 347,15, and I still have a position, whole or half, I will sell it at a loss immediately. The stoploss is there to limit my loss and preserve my capital in order to be able to trade another day.

This specific setup proposal is only valid for Tuesday.

When and what I buy based on this setup will be posted on the blog as well.

Update

Short Term Trend is up for a little while longer. We are in the process of making a higher high after a corrective period.

We are probably in an Elliott Wave Minute 5 - Minor 3 - Intermediate 1 - Primary 3 or C.

Slow Stochastic is above 50. There is a stochastic divergence setup for Monday, see my post from Friday.

End of week target 345. Monday to Thursday the AEX is likely to move up to 350. Friday would probably be a down day. These forecasts are based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis.

Stochastic Trade Setup Rollover 08-11-2010

Parameters have changed since 05-11-2010.

I will buy shorts as soon as the AEX goes below 345,09.

If, after the purchase, the market goes down:

I will sell, at a profit, half the shorts at the AEX 343,81 level and the other half at the AEX 343,03 level.

I will put my stoploss at the AEX 347,15 level. This means that if the AEX moves above 347,15, and I still have a position, whole or half, I will sell it at a loss immediately. The stoploss is there to limit my loss and preserve my capital in order to be able to trade another day.

This specific setup proposal is only valid for Monday.

When and what I buy based on this setup will be posted on the blog as well.

Stochastic Trade Setup 05-11-2010

I will buy shorts as soon as the AEX goes below 342,57.

If, after the purchase, the market goes down:

I will sell, at a profit, half the shorts at the AEX 341,22 level and the other half at the AEX 340,38 level.

I will put my stoploss at the AEX 344,76 level. This means that if the AEX moves above 344,76, and I still have a position, whole or half, I will sell it at a loss immediately. The stoploss is there to limit my loss and preserve my capital in order to be able to trade another day.

This specific setup proposal is only valid for Friday.

When and what I buy based on this setup will be posted on the blog as well.

Update

We just made a new high at 344,79.

We also have divergence. Although we made a new high in price we did not do so in the Slow Stochastic. This is a sign of weakness.

As a consequence we might have a stochastic trade setup for tomorrow. If there is going to be one I will post it tonight.

Update

I would expect us to trade up for another day or two and then make a significant correction (5%-10%).

So Friday or Monday is probably the day I'm going to take a limited short position.

Update

Not much has changed since my last update.

We are still waiting for a second lower high or a brand new high. One of these levels needs to brake, 335,33 (last low) or 344,23 (last high), in order to determine direction.

Slow Stochastic moved above 50 again. I will postpone my desire to buy shorts until at least the end of the week.

Update

Not much has changed since my last update.

Let's see if we can make a second lower high below 344,23. This would make the Short Term Trend down.

Update

Short Term Trend is in a corrective phase. We are below the trendchannel and have made a first lower high. A second lower low is in the make.

We are probably in an Elliott Wave a-b-c move of some sorts and degree.

Slow Stochastic is below 50. No stochastic setup for Monday.

I'm tempted however to do a trend trade (AEX Turbo Short 346) this week because we moved below 50 on the Slow Stochastic and because I'm reasonably confident the Short Term Trend is down. If we move above 344,23 this trend assumption will have proven to be wrong.

End of week target 340. This will be a consolidating week which will end slightly higher. These forecasts are based on cycle and pattern recognition analysis.