Update

Short Term Trend is in a corrective phase. We are below the trendchannel and have made a lower high and intraday lower lows. We are probably in an Elliott Wave a-b-c move of some sorts and degree. Slow Stochastic is nearing 50. No stochastic setup for Friday. However if we move below 50 tomorrow and if I'm convinced the Short Term Trend is down I might consider a short trade on Monday.

End of week target 339,50. First half of this week will be weak, especially Wednesday, second half might be stronger. We will end the week slightly lower. These are of course all subjective forecasts.

Update

Short Term Trend is in a corrective phase. We moved below the trendchannel and we made a lower high and an intraday lower low. We are probably in an Elliott Wave a-b-c move of some sorts and degree. Slow Stochastic is in neutral territory. No stochastic setup for Thursday.

End of week target 339,50. First half of this week will be weak, especially Wednesday, second half might be stronger. We will end the week slightly lower. These are of course all subjective forecasts.

Update

Short Term Trend is up as long as we stay above the last low at 337,73 (objective) or above the lower trendchannel line at 339,50 (subjective). On an intraday basis we moved out of the trendchannel and we made a lower high which both warrants caution. We are probably commencing an Elliott Wave a of some sorts and degree. Slow Stochastic is in neutral territory. Negative triple divergence with Price (21/9 vs 14/10 vs 25/10) in the daily timeframe. This may also be an early warning signal we are entering a corrective phase. No stochastic setup for Wednesday.

End of week target 339,50. First half of this week will be weak, especially Wednesday, second half might be stronger. We will end the week slightly lower. These are of course all subjective forecasts.

Update

Short Term Trend is up as long as we stay above the last low at 337,73 (objective) or above the lower trendchannel line at 339,50 (subjective). We are probably in an Elliott Wave 5 of some sorts and degree. Slow Stochastic is in neutral territory. Negative divergence with Price (21/9 vs 14/10 vs 25/10) in the daily timeframe. This may be an early warning signal we are entering a corrective phase. No stochastic setup for Tuesday.

End of week target 339,50. First half of this week will be weak, especially Wednesday, second half might be stronger. We will end the week slightly lower. These are of course all subjective forecasts.

Update

Short Term Trend is up as long as we stay above the last low at 337,73 (objective) or above the lower trendchannel line at 338,50 (subjective). We are probably in an Elliott Wave 4 (a, b and c) of some sorts and degree. Slow Stochastic is in neutral territory. Negative divergence with Price (21/9 vs 14/10) in the daily timeframe. This may be an early warning signal we are entering a corrective phase. No stochastic setup for Monday.

End of week target 339,50. First half of next week will be weak, especially Wednesday, second half might be stronger. We will end the week slightly lower. These are of course all subjective forecasts.

Update

Short Term Trend is up as long as we stay above 332,37 (objective) and 337,50 (subjective). End of week target 342,50. October 18-22 could very well be a consolidation week. I expect Friday until mid next week to be weak but we might very well hold the trendchannel. We are probably in an Elliott Wave 4 of some sorts and degree.

Slow Stochastic is in neutral territory. Negative divergence with Price (21/9 vs 14/10) in the daily timeframe. This may be an early warning signal we are in a corrective wave. No stochastic setup for Friday.

Trend

When does a trend commence?

When it starts establishing higher highs and higher lows (uptrend) or lower highs and lower lows (downtrend).

When does a trend finish?

An uptrend ends when it stops making higher highs and higher lows (objective), when it leaves the upward trendchannel (subjective) or when it diverges negatively with momentum indicators like the Slow Stochastic (early warning).
A downtrend ends when it stops making lower lows and lower highs (objective), when it leaves the downward trendchannel (subjective) or when it diverges positively with momentum indicators like the Slow Stochastic (early warning).

When a trend ends it doesn't necessarily needs to reverse. It can move into a range of non trending patterns (triangles, broadening formations, flags, pennants, wedges or rectangles).

What does that mean for today's AEX?

We are currently in an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows.

We would end that uptrend below the last low 332,37 (objective) or when it leaves the upward trendchannel at 337,50 (subjective). Since Price and Slow Stochastic diverged negatively between the September 21 high and the October 14 high we already have had an early warning of a trend end.

Update

Short Term Trend is up as long as we stay above 332,37. I guess we still have Elliott Wave 4 characteristics. End of week target 342,50. October 18-25 could very well be a consolidation week. Slow Stochastic is in neutral territory again. No divergence with Price in the daily timeframe. No stochastic setup for Thursday.

Elliott Wave Count

The bearish alternative of Minor Wave 2 up of Intermediate Wave 1 down of Primary Wave 3 down of Cycle Wave c down of Supercycle Wave a down of Grand Supercycle Wave IV down is my best bet. See also "Daneric's Elliott Waves" blog. If we go above 358,23 this count is dead.

"My best bet" is only going to gain credibility when the AEX slices through the following levels 332,37 (will reverse short term trend), 328,61, 308,47, 306,27 and 301,48.

The bullish alternative of Minor Wave 3 up of Intermediate Wave 3 up of Primary Wave 3 up of Cyclewave I up of Supercycle Wave III up is something to be aware of. If this would be the right count, which I think it isn't, the AEX is about to explode higher. See also "the Elliott Wave lives on" blog. If we go below 301,48 this count is dead.

Update

Short Term Trend is up as long as we stay above 332,37. I guess we have Elliott Wave 4 characteristics. End of week target 342,50. October 18-25 could very well be a consolidation week. Slow Stochastic returned to neutral territory again. No divergence with Price in the daily timeframe. No stochastic setup for Wednesday.

Update

Short Term Trend is up. Only invalidated below 332,37. Elliott Wave character 4 to 5. End of week target 342,50. October 18-25 could very well be a consolidation week. Slow Stochastic in overbought territory, but not yet 90. No divergence with Price in the daily timeframe. No stochastic setup for Tuesday.

Update

Short Term Trend is up. Only invalidated below 332,37. Elliott Wave character 4. End of week target 342,50. October 18-25 could very well be a consolidation week. Slow Stochastic in overbought territory, but not yet 90. No divergence with Price in the daily timeframe. No stochastic setup for Monday.

Update

Weakness in the form of consolidation is probably going to last until Tuesday. Quite possibly an Elliott Wave 4 (Minor) of some degree.

Update

Short Term Trend is up. End of Week target 349. Be careful, Friday could be a pullback day. Slow Stochastic in neutral territory, above 50 and nearing overbought. Negative divergence with Price in the daily timeframe. I'm not going to play it, i.e. for a short trade setup, because the close was almost on the low of the day. This means for me no stochastic setup for Friday.

Random thoughts are publicized under the Twitter button.

Close Trend Trade # 3

Sold existing AEX Turbo Longs 327 this morning just above the AEX 342,50 level. Made a profit of 26% (5 business days).

Update

Short Term Trend is up. End of Week target 349.

Slow Stochastic in neutral territory, above 50 and nearing overbought.

No divergence with Price in the daily timeframe.
Trend Trade # 3 is in progress since October 8.
No stochastic setup for Thursday.

Random thoughts are publicized under the Twitter button.

Update

Short Term Trend is up.

Slow Stochastic in neutral territory and above 50.

No divergence with Price in the daily timeframe.
Trend Trade # 3 is in progress since October 8.

No stochastic setup for Wednesday.

Random thoughts are publicized under the Twitter button.

Update

Short Term Trend is up.

Slow Stochastic in neutral territory and above 50.

Very slight positive divergence with Price in the daily timeframe.

Trend Trade # 3 is in progress since October 8.

No stochastic setup for Tuesday.

Update

Short Term Trend is turning up. Up until approximately October 18.

Slow Stochastic in neutral territory and above 50.

No divergence with Price in the daily timeframe.

Trend Trade # 3 is in progress since October 8.

No stochastic setup for Monday.

Open Trend Trade # 3

Bought AEX Turbo Longs 327 (Stoploss 328,61) this morning at the AEX 336,80 level. Might buy some more if the AEX moves above 341.
Will probably run this position until I have a decent profit or get a stochastic short setup. You will be notified of the sale.
Trend Trade according to Trade Principles (STT>+ and SS>50).
STT = Short Term Trade and SS = Slow Stochastic.

Update

Short Term Trend is down, although merely in a consolidating way.
Slow Stochastic in neutral territory and above 50.
No divergence with Price in the daily timeframe.
No setup for Friday.

Stochastic Update

Slow Stochastic in neutral territory. No setup for Thursday.

Bearish divergence however is on the prowl.

Stochastic Update

Slow Stochastic in neutral territory. No setup for Wednesday.

Stochastic Update

Slow Stochastic in neutral territory. No setup for Tuesday.

Close Trend Trade # 2

Sold existing AEX Turbo Shorts 347 this morning just above the AEX 331 level. Made a profit of 9% (2 business days).

Stochastic Update

Slow Stochastic in neutral territory. No setup for Monday.

It is however fast approaching the oversold level at 20. When it is 10 or below we will have a setup for a long position. I expect that to happen somewhere this week.

Open Trend Trade # 2

Bought AEX Turbo Shorts 347 on Friday after the Slow Stochastic went below 50 and the AEX was just below 334. I will probably run this position until I have a decent profit or get a stochastic long setup. You will be notified of the sale.

Trend Update

I might want to buy AEX Turbo Shorts 347 again today if the Slow Stochastic moves below 50.

Also because weakness is expected to last until 12 October.

If I do I won't be able to let you know, because I will be on route to Barcelona.