Friday, April 29, 2016

AEX Elliott Wave Musings Update

This update should be read in conjunction with AEX Elliott Wave Musings which was revised on 16 January, 2016.

It presents the tentative Elliott Wave count as I imagine it.

SuperCycle (V) - Cycle I - Primary 4 - Intermediate (A-B-C-D?-E? triangle/wedge?) - Minor 5.

A potential target for the current Intermediate (B) wave up is the 450-475 range.

I will keep the Cycle I count in vogue as long as we do not go below the 375-400 range.

If we however breach the 375-400 range to the downside in a material way, i.e. beyond 366 on a weekly close, I would deem us to be in Cycle II of SuperCycle (V). In that scenario the most likely target for the AEX woud be 315.

For a graphical display look at the AEX Monthly Chart Linear and AEX Daily Chart.

Don't hang your hat on this kind of analysis. It will be wrong more often than not. It is only a human and therefore feeble attempt to create some order out of seemingly random market movements.

I don't trade or invest according to these views. For that purpose I only use the Trend Trade & Investment Principle which is explained at the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

AEX Daily News

Immediate support is at 430, 406 and 378. Near resistance is at 450, 458 and 472. These numbers are rounded and only based on the daily timeframe. Seasonality will soon cease to be helpful.

In the AEX Daily Chart above mentioned levels correspond with the purple horizontal dotted lines and gaps are displayed by purple windows.

Additional support and resistance is amongst others created by sma lines, gaps and pivot points.

We have two gaps to fill to the upside and two to the downside.

For an explanation of the abbreviations and the Trend Trade & Investment Principle see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.

AEX Daily Update (based on previous business day)

Daily Time Frame Trading
AEX @ 450,31. (AEX Daily Chart).
MTP = + & MTI = +.
TTIP mode (reset only at end of day!).
Last TTIP trade since 05-04-2016 as of 428,85 ended 12-04-2016 as of 438,52 with a loss of 2,25%.
Weekly Time Frame Trading & Investing
AEX @ 450,31. (AEX Weekly Chart).
MTP = + & MTI = +.
TTIP mode (reset only at end of week!).
Last TTIP trade/investment (active trading) since 13-01-2016 as of 418,05 ended 15-01-2016 as of 403,57 with a profit of 3,46%.
Monthly Time Frame Equity Investing
AEX @ 450,31. (AEX Monthly Chart Linear).
MTP = 0 & MTI = +.
TTIP mode (reset only at end of month!). TTIP trade/investment terminated (at Slos).
Last TTIP trade/investment since 05-04-2016 as of 428,85 ended 19-04-2016 as of 451,41 with a loss of 5,26%.

Notes: See "AEX Daily News" & See "AEX Elliott Wave Musings Updates".

I only trade and invest based on the Trend Trade & Investment Principle. My views on the future as expressed in the notes are not taken into consideration.

For an explanation of the abbreviations and the Trend Trade & Investment Principle see the bottom of this blog. Please also read the disclaimer there.